Baylor comes out of its bye week with a rivalry game waiting and plenty of numbers that make the matchup with TCU easy to circle.
The Bears are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in Big 12 play, while TCU sits at 3-2 and 0-2. Baylor has averaged 461 yards per game to TCU’s 405, but the Horned Frogs have been stingier on defense, allowing 255 yards per game compared with Baylor’s 326. On the scoreboard, Baylor is putting up 34.8 points per game, while TCU is at 25.4.
The last meeting went to TCU, which beat Baylor 42-36 on the road in 2025. Overall, TCU leads the series 60-50-5.
That recent result hangs over this one, especially with the way both head coaches are being viewed. Dave Aranda has shown progress this season and has made Baylor competitive, but his overall Baylor record is 40-38 in seven seasons, and he is 2-4 against TCU.
A loss in this game would not sit well with Baylor fans. Sonny Dykes is in a different kind of pressure spot at TCU, where even chants of “Fire Sonny” have been heard from the home crowd.
This game also sets up a strength-on-strength collision up front. Baylor’s defense has been excellent this season, but TCU’s defense has held opponents to just 13.4 points per game, which ranks 15th nationally.
The Horned Frogs have done that with an aggressive approach, leaning on stunts and pre-snap movement that can create gaps if an offense handles it well. Baylor’s offensive line has been dependable in pass protection, though it has not always delivered consistent help in the run game.
On the other side, TCU’s defensive front against Baylor’s offensive line is expected to be one of the key areas to watch.
Baylor returns from the open date looking to push its winning streak to five games and add another Big 12 win when TCU comes to Waco on October 17 at 6:00 PM CT on FS1. The game has been labeled the I-35 Revivalry, the Blackout on the Brazos, or simply “the day the Frogs came to town.”
Questions around the matchup are already clear: which defense will control the night, whether DJ Lagway will be used on more designed runs, and whether Baylor can turn in another complete performance like it did against ASU.
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