Rivalry games have a way of turning tidy expectations into a mess, and Baylor’s meeting with TCU looks built for exactly that kind of chaos.
The 122nd edition of Bears vs. Horned Frogs brings together two teams that have leaned on defense more than offense so far.
Each side has held every opponent to 21 points or fewer, and that’s the kind of backdrop that usually points to a tight, ugly game instead of another classic shootout. Expect short drives, plenty of punts and a few turnovers to shape the night.
There’s reason to think this one could resemble the kind of bruising matchup Baylor had with Colorado rather than a wide-open track meet. That would fit the mood around both offenses, which have struggled at times, while the defenses have kept things respectable.
Baylor also gets a major stage. The Bears earned a 6 p.m. blackout on Saturday, helped in part by the road win over ASU, and McLane Stadium should feel different than it has for much of the season.
Baylor has not consistently packed the place since the season-opening loss to Auburn in 2025, but rivalry games have a way of changing the equation. Add in good weather and the coolest temperature of the season for Waco, and the home crowd should be ready to make itself heard.
That matters for Dave Aranda, who has been under pressure for a while and has beaten TCU only once in six tries against the rival. Even with Baylor off to a strong 4-1 start, this game was already viewed as the biggest one for his job security before the season began. A win here would quiet a lot of the noise, at least for the moment.
On the field, the expectation is that Baylor finds a way. DJ Lagway is projected to keep things steady, with Gavin Freeman again serving as a key target, while the defense should remain the central story. It may not be pretty, but Baylor looks positioned to grind this one out.
The Bears enter the weekend tied atop the Big 12 with BYU, Utah, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. That group has plenty of stress points ahead: BYU travels to No.
2 Notre Dame, Oklahoma State heads to No. 20 Cougars and Texas Tech faces a trap game against ASU.
If Baylor handles TCU and moves to 3-0, it would take a major step toward standing alone at the top of the conference.
In Other News...
Baylor Could Benefit From A CFP Shift Fans May Not Love
The College Football Playoff is again on the verge of a major makeover, and for Baylor the possible ripple effect cuts both ways. A larger field has been discussed as a path to giving more programs from the Big 12 a real postseason lane, which would be a welcome development for a league that has often had to fight for access against the sports traditional powers.
For Bears fans, the upside is obvious because more spots should mean more chances to stay in the hunt deep into November. But the broader concern is harder to ignore, since a wider playoff can also dull some of the urgency that makes the regular season matter so much. Baylor would likely see the benefits of the shift, yet the sport may have to decide whether the extra inclusion is worth what gets lost along the way. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Faces Its Biggest Test Yet Against A National Power
Week 7 in the Big 12 brings a slate that should tell us a lot about where the league is headed, with a top-10 BYU-Notre Dame matchup grabbing the national spotlight and rivalry pressure hanging over Kansas and Kansas State. There is also a ranked meeting between Oklahoma State and Houston, the kind of game that can reshape momentum quickly in a conference where every week seems to carry bigger stakes.
For Baylor, the most relevant subplot is the continued rise of the quarterback play that has given the Bears a real pulse in league play. The offense has leaned on a young passer who has settled in quickly, and after his last outing he has started to look like someone defenses have to account for every snap. How he handles the next step will matter not just for Baylor's immediate ceiling, but for how seriously the rest of the Big 12 has to treat the Bears in the weeks ahead. [Read more 🡒]
TCU Faces A Revivalry Gut Check With Baylor Gaining Ground
TCU comes out of its bye week facing a Baylor team that has quietly built real momentum in Big 12 play, and the matchup now has a very different look than it did a few weeks ago. The Horned Frogs are trying to steady a season that has started with a 2-3 record and an 0-2 conference mark, while Baylor arrives at 4-1 overall and unbeaten in league play, a contrast that has already shaped the discussion around the rivalry game.
Inside the staff predictions, the lean was clear, with most picks landing on Baylor and only a few sticking with TCU. Still, this series has a long memory, and TCUs edge in the all-time matchup hangs over a rivalry that has often ignored records and expectations. Baylor has the better current resume, but the question in this one is whether that gap is enough to change the familiar script when the teams finally line up again. [Read more 🡒]