Iowa State walked out of Week 9 with the kind of win that can change the mood around a season. The Cyclones knocked off No. 24 Oklahoma State in a 51-49 shootout at Jack Trice Stadium, and it was their first victory over a ranked opponent after five tries.
That result pushed Iowa State to 4-4 and kept the bowl path alive. The math is simple now: two more wins and the Cyclones are in position to become bowl-eligible.
The next chance comes in Waco against Baylor, a team that just made a major change. The Bears fired head coach Dave Aranda and then answered with a 41-9 road win over UCF, their fifth victory of the year.
One of the biggest reasons Iowa State has a real shot in this matchup is the way Jaylen Raynor played against Oklahoma State. His status had been in question not long ago after he was benched at halftime against Arizona, but the veteran looked completely settled back in the lineup last week. He delivered the best game of his Cyclones career, throwing for 309 yards and three touchdowns while adding 48 rushing yards and another score.
That kind of production is expected to carry over. Raynor is projected to complete at least 60 percent of his passes, go for 250-plus yards and throw two touchdowns. He is also expected to keep making plays with his legs, with at least 35 rushing yards and one more score.
Iowa State’s defense has had a harder time getting to opposing quarterbacks this season, with only 10 sacks on the year. Still, there were signs of life against Oklahoma State, when the Cyclones finished with 14 total pressures, including 11 hurries and three quarterback hits.
Those pressures are expected to turn into sacks in Waco. Iowa State is projected to finish with three, with Isaac Terrell getting his first since the opener against Southeast Missouri State and Jace Gilbert, who has the team’s best pass-rushing grade, recording his first sack of the season.
The Cyclones have not done much away from Ames this year, but that is expected to change on this trip. Iowa State is picked to grab its first road win of the 2026 season and leave Baylor with a 27-24 victory.
Kyle Konrardy is expected to come through late again, while Aiden Flora is projected to top 150 yards from scrimmage for the second straight game. Cameron Pettaway is also expected to keep building his role at receiver, with at least three catches as he continues his move from running back.
In Other News...
Baylor's Big Win Came With One Problem Fans Can't Ignore
Baylors 42-31 win over Iowa State gave the Bears a much-needed boost, moving them to 6-3 and adding another quality result to a season that has started to find its footing. DJ Lagway was the engine again, piling up 345 yards and multiple touchdowns as Baylor kept pace in a game that had plenty of offense and a few uneasy stretches along the way.
The concern, though, was hard to miss early on, when Iowa State found room to move and Aiden Flora piled up 182 rushing yards. Baylor did settle in and blank the Cyclones in the third quarter, but the uneven defensive start left a lingering question even after the final score turned in the Bears favor. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Had One Especially Encouraging Sign In This Blowout Win
Baylor opened the season 2-0 in emphatic fashion, rolling past Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 56 points and giving the Bears plenty to like beyond the final margin. The most encouraging development may have been the breakout from Isaac Williams IV, who delivered a career-high 26 points while also chipping in on the glass, in the playmaking column and on defense.
Isaac Williams was hardly the only Bear who left a mark. Dylan Mingo brought a strong defensive presence, UAB transfer Chatman added useful minutes, and the rotation got a look at Brett Decker and Elijah Williams even if the shooting was uneven at times. For Baylor, the blowout offered more than a comfortable win. It hinted at depth, versatility and a few early signs of who might be ready to carry more of the load as the schedule tightens. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Homecoming Puts One Bears Decision Under A Bigger Spotlight
Baylors homecoming weekend brings a little more than the usual pageantry to Waco, with Iowa State coming in under the watch of interim head coach Joe Klanderman after Dave Arandas firing. The matchup gives the Bears a chance to reset in front of their home crowd, but it also comes with the kind of conference wrinkle that can make a celebratory Saturday feel a lot more serious by kickoff.
Iowa State arrives off an upset of Oklahoma State, even while carrying one of the Big 12s least productive offenses and leaning heavily on running back Aiden Flora to keep drives alive. Baylors offense has been more effective by comparison, and the bigger question may be whether the Bears can keep their quarterback upright against a defense that has not piled up sacks, a detail that could shape how smoothly this homecoming game unfolds. [Read more 🡒]