The Athletic’s preseason outlook on Baylor doesn’t swing for the fences, and that’s probably why it feels so familiar. Ahead of the season, the outlet published a team-by-team preview for all 138 college football programs, and its read on the Bears lands right where a lot of Baylor fans likely are with kickoff less than two weeks away.
The numbers are modest across the board: 5.3% odds to make the CFP, 2% to win the Big 12, and a 55th-place spot in The Athletic 138 rankings. That points to a team that should be better than it was last year, but not one expected to break through in a major way. Baylor finished 83rd nationally last season, so the projection does suggest improvement - just not a dramatic leap.
The biggest storyline, unsurprisingly, is quarterback DJ Lagway. The Athletic called him “Former five-star recruit and Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway is an intriguing change-of-scenery storyline, and Aranda could be a midseason firing candidate if the team gets off to a slow start.” That’s a pretty clean snapshot of where things stand: Lagway is the headline act, and Dave Aranda is already operating under pressure with a 36-37 record at Baylor.
The outlet also made clear what’s at stake for Aranda, saying he needs to “at least reach bowl eligibility - and probably more - to keep his job,” while the broader mission is to “unlock Lagway’s high-ceiling potential.”
On the personnel side, The Athletic pointed to junior Dawson Pendergrass as the Bears’ key player for 2026. The write-up noted his 2024 production and said, “Pendergrass is back healthy with a chip on his shoulder and a chance to be the Bears’ lead back.”
Lagway is clearly the more central figure, but Pendergrass still matters plenty for how Baylor’s season unfolds. If anything, his importance may be bigger as part of the running back group as a whole than as an individual carry-the-load answer.
The game The Athletic highlighted is the one that jumps out immediately: Auburn in Week 1. That makes sense. Baylor will walk into Mercedes-Benz and try to handle an SEC team that beat it by two touchdowns last season, and that opener should tell everyone plenty about what kind of team this is.
So while The Athletic’s Baylor preview plays it safe, the assessment still feels fair. It keeps the focus on the two pressure points that matter most - Lagway and Aranda - and it lands on the right early-season test against Auburn.
In Other News...
Baylor Receiver Depth Suddenly Looks Shaky Right Before Auburn
Dawson Pendergrass has worked his way back from a foot injury and is now expected to be ready when Baylor opens the season against Auburn, which gives the Bears at least one encouraging update as the countdown to kickoff continues. Getting a receiver back in the mix matters for a Baylor offense that wants to settle in early, especially with the season opener carrying a little extra attention against a Power Four opponent.
Taz Williams Jr. is the tougher subplot to sort through after he injured his collarbone in practice and is set for surgery, leaving his availability in question at a time when depth is already a concern. Coach Dave Aranda has said Williams Jr. could be back within a few weeks, but for now Baylor is left waiting on a more precise timeline and hoping the receiver room can absorb the hit until it gets clearer answers. [Read more 🡒]
Caden Knighten Could Be Baylor's Most Dangerous Backfield X-Factor
Caden Knighten arrived at Baylor with the kind of speed that always makes a backfield interesting, and he has already shown he can do more than just sprint past defenders. A former Oklahoma 2-A 100-meter state champion in 2023, Knighten carved out a role last season while sharing touches with Bryson Washington and Michael Turner, finishing with 104 carries for 469 yards and 11 catches for 134 yards, plus a rushing score and a receiving touchdown.
With Dawson Pendergrass healthy this season, Knighten is expected to stay in a reserve role, but that does not make him any less important to the Bears offensive picture. Baylors rushing outlook feels like it could hinge on how much explosiveness it gets from Knighten and the other backs around him, especially if the staff keeps finding ways to get him into space where his track speed can change a drive in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Just Strengthened A Recruiting Edge Fans Cant Ignore
Baylor is making another move to keep pace in the increasingly crowded NIL arms race, announcing a partnership with TheLinkU that will bring the companys revenue and NIL platform into the athletic department. The goal is straightforward enough: give Baylor student-athletes a more centralized system for managing opportunities, while also creating new ways for the program to grow revenue and deepen brand partnerships around the Bears.
The deal also adds some structure behind the scenes, with contract management and compliance workflows built into the platform, along with fan engagement experiences aimed at making the whole operation more visible and marketable. A new initiative called Link254 is part of the rollout, and the pitch to recruits is hard to miss, Baylor now has another tool to sell as it tries to stand out in a recruiting landscape where off-field opportunity matters almost as much as what happens on the field. [Read more 🡒]