Baylor is bowl eligible, and the latest projections are starting to sketch out a few very different December paths for the Bears.
Saturday’s 42-31 Homecoming win over Iowa State got Baylor to 6-3, with three games still left to play before the postseason picture is set. That stretch begins Saturday at No.
12 BYU, but for now the bracket-watchers have Baylor landing in four different bowls across five projections. Two ESPN analysts both have the Bears in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl.
One of those ESPN projections keeps Baylor in Houston and pairs the Bears with Missouri. In that setup, the biggest concern is Jamal Roberts, who cleared 1,000 rushing yards before Missouri played Texas. Baylor just gave up 182 yards to Iowa State’s Aidan Flora, so there would be work to do before trying to slow Roberts down.
Texas offered a useful blueprint against Missouri. The Longhorns held Roberts to 66 yards on 19 carries and completed 28 of 38 passes in a 34-20 loss, even while Missouri managed three sacks and forced three fumbles. The idea for Baylor would be simple enough: get the ball out quickly underneath, let DJ Lagway avoid the pass rush, and make Missouri tackle in space.
Another ESPN projection also keeps Baylor in Houston, but changes the opponent to Oklahoma. The Sooners just beat Florida 23-7, controlling the game by keeping the Gators off the field and limiting them to 203 yards and two third-down conversions. In Jason Witten’s first game calling plays, Oklahoma put together an 89-yard touchdown drive on 20 plays and burned 12:45 off the clock.
John Mateer led Oklahoma with 56 rushing yards in Gainesville, and that matters because Baylor’s edge rushers would have to stay disciplined. If they get too far upfield, Mateer can step through the pocket and turn a stop into another set of downs. Baylor beat Oklahoma 38-35 in Norman in 2022.
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford has Baylor in a rematch with Auburn, which would bring back memories of the Bears’ season opener. Lagway threw for 333 yards and Gavin Freeman piled up 154 receiving yards in Baylor’s 17-16 loss in Atlanta.
Baylor came within a point on Freeman’s touchdown with nine seconds left, then missed the two-point try. If that matchup happens again, the challenge would be turning more of those yards into points before the final drive.
Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown was a problem in the opener, throwing for 259 yards and scoring the go-ahead touchdown on an 11-yard run. He kept doing damage against Arkansas on Saturday, accounting for three second-half touchdowns, including a 28-yard pass on third-and-12 after escaping pressure. Baylor would have to treat him as a runner even on obvious passing downs until the ball is out.
Athlon Sports sends Baylor to Tempe for a reunion with Matt Rhule, who took the Bears from one win in 2017 to 11 wins and a Sugar Bowl appearance in 2019. With Baylor in another coaching transition, the timing would make that matchup stand out even more.
Nebraska has dropped four straight after a 5-0 start, but Anthony Colandrea has kept the Huskers competitive. He threw for 284 yards against Illinois, including a 51-yard touchdown to Jacory Barney Jr. Nebraska finished with 426 yards and only 13 points, which points to a game where Baylor could give up yardage and still come out ahead if it prevents Colandrea from extending drives on third and fourth down.
The Athletic has Baylor headed to Shreveport to face Oregon State. The Beavers scored at least 48 points in three straight games in October, so the offense is more dangerous than the 42-21 loss to Texas State suggests. Jesse Legree had 99 receiving yards in that game, though Oregon State’s two quarterbacks combined for two interceptions and no touchdown passes.
Baylor’s best edge in that matchup would be on the ground. Texas State ran for 386 yards, including 196 from Torrance Burgess Jr., and converted 10 of 15 third downs.
Baylor ran for 194 against Iowa State, with Lagway accounting for 119 and Ryelan Morris scoring twice. If the Bears can stay ahead of the chains with both runners, Lagway won’t have to shoulder the offense on obvious passing downs.
In Other News...
Joe Klanderman Just Raised The Stakes For Baylors Finish
Joe Klanderman has given Baylor a much steadier hand than anyone could have expected in the immediate aftermath of Dave Arandas firing. As the interim head coach, he has guided the Bears to two straight wins, and suddenly a season that looked like it might spiral has settled into something far more interesting. At 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big 12 play, Baylor is still mathematically alive in the conference race, which is no small thing at this stage of the year.
The challenge now is the closing stretch, because the Bears still have three difficult games left and no one around the program can afford to look past what comes next. Klandermans quick start has also started to change the conversation around the job itself, with speculation beginning to build about whether he could become a real candidate for the permanent opening. For a team that was just trying to stabilize, the stakes around the finish have suddenly gotten a lot higher. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Transfer Rebuild Is Raising One Big Question Late In Season
Baylor leaned hard into the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in 30 newcomers to patch holes and raise the floor around quarterback DJ Lagway. The idea was clear enough: add experience, add depth and make the roster more competitive right away. Midway through the season, that approach has produced some real dividends, especially with receiver Freeman emerging as the most reliable offensive option, cornerback Jordan making plays on the back end and defensive contributor Ponder helping the pass rush.
Still, the season keeps circling back to the same question because of Lagway. His year has been uneven, shaped by injury and performance swings, even if the recent trend has pointed in a better direction. For a rebuild built so heavily on transfers, Baylors late-season ceiling may depend on whether its quarterback can turn that improvement into something more stable when it matters most. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Offense Looked Dangerous But One Concern Still Lingers
Homecoming brought plenty for Baylor fans to like in a 42-31 win over Iowa State, especially the way the offense kept finding answers from different spots on the field. DJ Lagway was a central figure in the attack, helping the Bears move the ball both through the air and on the ground, while the rest of the offense showed the kind of varied production that can make this group difficult to defend when it is clicking.
Still, the final score also left one area worth watching as the season moves on. Baylors defense generated pressure with three sacks and nine tackles for loss, and special teams did its part with clean extra points and solid punting, but Iowa State was able to lean on its rushing game enough to keep the Bears from fully putting the matchup away sooner. [Read more 🡒]