Baylor heads to Tempe on Saturday night for what looks like one of the tighter matchups on its schedule so far, and the betting market is treating it that way. After three straight home wins - each by double digits - the Bears are leaving Waco for the first time in almost a month to face Arizona State, a second Big 12 test for a Baylor offense that is still searching for consistency.
This one feels close on paper, and the spread reflects it. The game is essentially a toss-up, with the usual three-point bump for the home team doing some of the heavy lifting. On a neutral field, these teams would be hard to separate, and even with the Sun Devils at home, Baylor has a real case to cover.
The bigger question might be the total. Baylor’s offense has sputtered at times, especially in the second half, and that’s a big reason this matchup has the feel of a lower-scoring game.
Arizona State can put points on the board - the Sun Devils are averaging 38 a game, helped heavily by a 70-7 win over Morgan State - but Baylor’s defense hasn’t been giving away easy yards or cheap touchdowns. Add in the uncertainty around DJ Lagway’s health and running ability, and the ingredients are there for a game that stays below the number.
Arizona State comes in off a bye after its trip to London to play Kansas, a sentence that still feels wild to type in a Big 12 context. The Sun Devils did edge the Jayhawks 24-17 there, but they also needed every bit of that margin after a recent struggle. Their season outlook still sits in the 5-6 win range, and they were beaten much more decisively by TAMU, 48-20.
Baylor’s own resume is a little more revealing. The Bears opened the year with a 17-16 loss to Auburn in the Aflac Kickoff Game on what was described as neutral ground, then started Big 12 play last week in Waco with a loss to Colorado. Arizona State, meanwhile, has already logged its first Big 12 win of the season.
Lagway is expected to make his third different start of the season, and another week removed from the original injury should help him be a little more involved for Baylor. The expectation is not for anything huge, but there is a sense he could be used more as a runner this week. If that happens, it gives the Bears another dimension Arizona State has to respect, and it could force the Sun Devils to crowd the line and open things up behind them.
The numbers say this should be a tight one, and maybe a lower-scoring one too. Baylor has the edge against the spread, even if the night setting in the desert makes it anything but simple.
In Other News...
Baylor Fans Suddenly Have A Wild Dave Aranda Debate
Baylors coaching conversation has taken a sharp turn beyond the usual week-to-week questions, with Dave Arandas long-term future suddenly becoming a topic of real debate among fans. Aranda is under contract through the 2029 season, but the feeling around the program still hinges on performance, which is why any discussion of what comes next has started to pick up steam.
Lincoln Rileys name has now entered the chatter as a possible replacement if Baylor ever moved on from Aranda, even though there is no official connection between the sides. The USC coach also comes with a major buyout hurdle, which is why analysts have treated the idea as more of a high-end what-if than a clear path forward, but it is still the kind of speculation that can tell you how restless a fan base is getting. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado Just Turned Baylor's QB Problem Into A Bigger Big 12 Story
Colorados quarterback situation took another turn during its game against Baylor, when Julian Lewis lost the starting job after two difficult performances and was replaced by Isaac Wilson in the middle of the matchup. Even with the change, Deion Sanders made a point of saying Lewis is still in the mix to reclaim the role, a reminder that the Buffaloes are treating this as a live competition rather than a permanent handoff.
For Baylor, it adds another layer to a Big 12 race already full of moving parts, because Colorado now has to settle on a starter before next weeks game against Texas Tech. Wilson is in the conversation, Lewis is still there, and Kaneal Sweetwyne gives Sanders another option, which means the Buffaloes are suddenly trying to sort out their most important position while the conference schedule keeps rolling. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Gets A Needed Secondary Boost Ahead Of Arizona State
Baylors secondary got a timely lift this week as senior defensive back Micah Gifford is expected to be available for the matchup against Arizona State. Gifford left the Week 4 game against Colorado with a leg injury, but teammate Bo Onu said he should play, a welcome development for a defense that has been juggling injuries and recent returns in the back end.
Gifford had been off to a strong start before leaving that Colorado game, and his presence matters even more now with Baylor trying to steady a secondary that has had to piece things together. Against an Arizona State team that can test coverage in a hurry, getting an experienced defensive back back on the field gives the Bears a better chance to settle in and avoid another week of improvising on the fly. [Read more 🡒]