The Baltimore Ravens are walking a tightrope in the AFC North - and they know it. After a rocky start to the season, including a key injury to Lamar Jackson, it looked like Baltimore might be slipping out of the playoff conversation entirely.
But in a division where chaos is the norm, the Ravens found a lifeline. The Steelers stumbled, Jackson returned, and suddenly, the door to the AFC North crown creaked back open.
But just when it seemed like Baltimore had a shot to seize control, Joe Burrow and the Bengals had other plans. On Thanksgiving, Cincinnati spoiled the Ravens’ momentum with a gritty upset win - powered by Burrow’s steady play and a defense that came to play.
That loss didn’t just sting in the standings; it kept the Steelers in the mix and gave the Bengals a pulse. The AFC North, once again, is a three-team dogfight heading into the stretch run.
Now, with Week 13 in the books, the Ravens are staring down a narrow path to the postseason. The good news?
They’re still in it. The bad news?
It’s division title or bust.
Let’s break down where things stand for Baltimore using a few of the most respected playoff prediction models in the game - DVOA, ESPN’s FPI, and The Athletic’s simulator.
FTN’s DVOA Model: A 50/50 Shot - But No Wild Card Safety Net
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is one of the sharper tools in the analytics toolbox. It measures how well a team performs relative to league average, adjusted for the quality of opponents. In other words, it's not just about wins and losses - it's about how you look doing it, and who you’re doing it against.
According to FTN’s latest simulations, the Ravens have a 51.2% chance of making the playoffs. That’s essentially a coin flip.
But here’s the kicker: their model gives Baltimore almost no shot of getting in via the Wild Card. That tells us everything we need to know - if the Ravens don’t win the AFC North, their season’s likely done by Week 18.
ESPN’s FPI: Slightly More Optimistic, Same Conclusion
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) works along similar lines. It’s designed to project how strong a team is moving forward - not just what they’ve done, but what they’re likely to do next.
FPI gives the Ravens a bit more breathing room, putting their playoff odds at around 60%. That’s a solid bump from DVOA, but the message remains the same: Baltimore’s path runs through the division. Their odds of winning the AFC North are virtually identical to their overall playoff chances, meaning there’s no Wild Card cushion here either.
The Athletic’s Simulator: Highest Odds, But Still a Tightrope
The Athletic’s playoff simulator is the most bullish on Baltimore. According to their projections, the Ravens have a 64% chance of making the playoffs - the highest of the three models.
But again, there’s a catch: if they don’t win the division, their odds fall off a cliff. Less than 1% chance of getting in as a Wild Card.
Interestingly, The Athletic also gives the Ravens a 4% shot at winning the Super Bowl - a number that’s significantly higher than DVOA’s 1.2% projection. That suggests that if Baltimore does get in, they’re seen as a dangerous team with real upside.
The Wild Card Race Isn’t Doing Baltimore Any Favors
Here’s the reality: the AFC Wild Card race is a bloodbath this year. The Ravens, sitting on six losses through 13 weeks, are behind the eight ball.
With teams like the Bills, Colts, Chargers, Chiefs, and Texans all jockeying for limited spots, there’s just not much room for error. Baltimore’s resume doesn’t stack up well in a tiebreaker-heavy scenario.
That’s why the division is everything. And the road ahead? It’s no cakewalk.
The Path Forward: Five Games, No Margin for Error
Baltimore has five games left to try and lock down the AFC North, and they’re not exactly easing into the finish line. Two of those games are against the Steelers - and given how the division is shaping up, those matchups could end up deciding everything. The Ravens also get another crack at the Bengals, which could be pivotal if Cincinnati keeps surging and Pittsburgh falters.
Outside the division, Baltimore has two tough matchups: one against the AFC-leading Patriots, and another against a Packers team that’s been playing sharp football. That’s a brutal closing stretch, and it means the Ravens will need to bring their A-game every week.
The good news? They’ve got the talent.
Jackson is back, the defense has shown flashes, and the roster is battle-tested. But talent alone won’t get them there.
They’ll need execution, health, and a little bit of that AFC North grit to survive the gauntlet.
Bottom line: the Ravens are still alive, but they’re living on the edge. The margin for error is razor-thin, and the path to the playoffs goes straight through the division. If Baltimore wants to be playing football in January, they’ll have to earn it - one bruising, high-stakes game at a time.