The Ravens have built an offense that looks dangerous by just about any metric, but one stubborn flaw keeps dragging it back to earth: they cannot get the hard yard when they absolutely need it.
Even with Lamar Jackson out for the last two weeks, Baltimore’s numbers still hold up. The Ravens sit sixth in EPA per play, seventh in points per game, and eighth in yards per game.
That’s the profile of a really good offense. But the short-yardage work has been ugly enough to keep them from looking like the monster unit they should be.
Through six weeks, Baltimore ranks 30th in combined 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 conversion rate. The Ravens have gone just 5-for-10 in those spots.
By comparison, the top two teams in the league have been perfect, and half the NFL is converting at better than 70 percent. Five missed chances doesn’t sound catastrophic on paper, but it’s enough to stall drives, steal points, and keep a strong offense from turning into a great one.
And this has not been a one-game hiccup. It’s been there all season.
In Week 2 against the New Orleans Saints, the Ravens chose to throw a deep pass to Chris Moore and ended up punting. That moment got buried after a game-winning field goal, but the issue came right back in Week 3 against the Dallas Cowboys, when Baltimore failed to convert on 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 three times, including one at the end zone.
That’s what makes this so frustrating for Baltimore: there isn’t an obvious talent issue here. The roster is loaded, and the offense should be able to bully its way through one-yard situations. Jackson’s status for Week 7 is still up in the air, but whether he plays or not, the Ravens can’t keep letting these snaps turn into empty possessions against a stout Cincinnati Bengals team.
First-year offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has been excellent overall. His play design is creative, and the way he strings concepts together has already made an impression.
Still, there are times when the call sheet seems a little too clever for the moment. Short-yardage is not the place to get cute.
Sometimes the answer is as simple as lining up and getting one yard. With Derrick Henry in the backfield, Baltimore should be able to lean on something direct - a QB sneak or tush push - and make life easier on itself.
That holds whether Jackson or Tyler Huntley is under center. It also matters because Henry has never been stellar in short-yardage situations.
Clean up those downs, and a lot changes. Drives stay alive.
More possessions turn into points. The offense gets longer stretches to work with instead of killing itself with self-inflicted wounds.
The Ravens are already operating at a high level, and with Jackson back, that ceiling gets even higher. But if they want to become the best offense in the league and get where they think they can go, the short-yardage problem has to go first.
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