The Ravens don’t have the cleanest setup heading into Sunday, and the injury report alone would make this one look messy. Lamar Jackson is out at quarterback with an ankle injury, and that matters. But this is still a game Baltimore should be able to handle in Cleveland, and the matchup gives them a real path to doing it.
Baltimore entered the season with Super Bowl expectations. Cleveland did not.
That gap still matters here, especially with the Ravens coming in as a road favorite despite the absences. They also know what’s waiting after this one, with the Bengals, Jaguars and Bills looming, and this is the last spot for a while where they can reasonably expect to be favored.
Jesse Minter is about to coach his first AFC North game, too, and plenty of people in this room understand how hard it has been for this organization to win in Cleveland.
The game should come down, as these divisional matchups so often do, to the trenches. Control the line of scrimmage and you control a lot else.
Baltimore’s edge here is obvious on paper, especially if Trey Hendrickson and Nnamdi Madubuike can stay on the field longer than they have all season and closer to full health than they’ve been before. The two have shared just 32 snaps together this year.
The clearest place for the Ravens to press is on the ground. Declan Doyle said Derrick Henry would get plenty of work, and Baltimore has already leaned heavily on him.
Through five weeks, Henry has carried the ball more than any age 32 running back since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, and he leads the NFL with 113 carries, eight more than Jahmyr Gibbs. Cleveland hasn’t held up well against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and sitting 30th in Expected Points Added and Success Rate against it.
Their top defensive tackle and their do-it-all linebacker are both on the injury report, which only adds to the case for keeping the pressure on with volume and variety.
That should include the quarterback run game and touches for other pieces as well, not just Zay Flowers. The Ravens also have a strong defensive front to help back that plan up. Madubuike is fully back after missing more than a year with a neck injury, and Baltimore just shut down Bijan Robinson on the road in Atlanta last Sunday night.
There’s also the possibility that Browns coach Todd Monken, who knows this Ravens group well from his time as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator, decides not to linger too long on the run game and instead tries to attack a shaky secondary through the air. Even so, winning in the AFC North without a functioning run game is a tough ask, and the Browns sit 30th in the NFL in EPA per designed run play at minus-0.22.
Deshaun Watson has shown enough in the regular season to keep going, and he has been playing decent football, but the bigger issue is everything around him. His legs are not what they used to be, and when he holds the ball, trouble tends to follow. He has been sacked on 11.4% of his dropbacks, the Browns line has issues across the board, and turnovers remain a real concern.
Watson is also a slow starter, which gives Baltimore another opening. If the Ravens can get out front by leaning on Henry and the run game in the first half, they should be able to slow the game down and take the air out of it later.
Neither quarterback is built for a heavy diet of deep shots, as Watson ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in air yards per attempt. Huntley at least has the advantage of a run game that should put him in cleaner down-and-distance situations.
In Other News...
Ravens Face A Costly Colts Debate After Cam Jurgens Trade
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For Baltimore, the appeal is obvious, but so are the complications. The idea of pursuing Quenton Nelson or DeForest Buckner has been floated, yet the cost in both contract money and draft capital makes any move tricky, especially for a team that has already invested to shore up the middle of its front. Around the league, analysts do not sound uniform on whether such a swing is realistic or even wise, which leaves the Ravens with a tempting possibility and no easy path to making it happen. [Read more 🡒]
Ravens Already Face An Uncomfortable Question About Their Costly Signing
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Through six weeks, though, the early returns have been uncomfortable. Simpson has drawn scrutiny for uneven play and a tendency to get flagged, and the broader concern is whether Baltimore is getting the kind of value it expected from one of its pricier offseason investments. For a team that built the contract around dependability, the first month and a half has left the Ravens with a question they would rather not be asking this soon. [Read more 🡒]
Lamar Jacksons Ravens Return Outlook Just Put Week 7 In Doubt
Lamar Jacksons absence has already stretched through two games, and now the next checkpoint comes with Week 7 looming against Cincinnati. The Ravens quarterback has been out since Week 4 with an ankle injury, and head coach Jesse Minter said Jackson could potentially practice this week, a sign that Baltimore may be getting closer to learning whether its offense can have its centerpiece back on the field.
For now, the status remains unsettled, which leaves the Ravens in a familiar holding pattern heading into a divisional matchup. If Jackson is not able to go against the Bengals, Tyler Huntley is expected to step in at quarterback, keeping Baltimores game plan in flux until the practice week reveals more. [Read more 🡒]