The Baltimore Ravens enter 2026 with the betting market still treating them like a heavyweight, even after a 2025 season that unraveled fast. They dealt with one of the NFL’s most injury-riddled rosters, stumbled out of the gate at 1-5, and never found a way back, finishing 8-9 and missing the postseason entirely.
That collapse pushed the organization into a major reset. John Harbaugh is out after a run that began in 2008 and included a Super Bowl title in the 2012-13 season. In his place is Jesse Minter, the former Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator, who steps into what was described as one of the most attractive coaching openings in recent memory.
Even with all that change, oddsmakers still see Baltimore as a threat to jump right back into the top tier. The Ravens are one of just two teams in the league sitting at 11.5 projected wins, alongside the Los Angeles Rams.
The difference is in the pricing: the OVER is -125 for the Rams, but +115 for Baltimore. That gives the Ravens the second-highest win total in the NFL and the highest in the AFC.
At +115, the market is implying a 46.51% chance the Ravens win 12 or more games, and they’ve already done that in both 2023 and 2024.
The biggest reason for hesitation is still Lamar Jackson. He missed time with injuries last season, and when he was on the field, he didn’t resemble the version that usually drives Baltimore’s offense.
In 13 games, Jackson went 6-7, threw for 196.1 passing yards per game, and averaged just 26.8 rushing yards per game, roughly half of his 2024 average. He also checked in 14th among quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and 13th in completion percentage over expected.
Baltimore is also leaning on an aging Derrick Henry at running back, and he’ll be 32 years old, a point where the wear and tear starts to matter.
There is at least one thing working in the Ravens’ favor: the schedule. Based on the projected win totals of their opponents, Baltimore has the fifth-easiest slate in the NFL, trailing only the Lions, Bengals, Saints, and Jets.
So while a return to playoff relevance wouldn’t be a shock, the case for the AFC’s highest win total feels a little too aggressive. The belief here is that Jackson has to deliver the bounce-back season the market is banking on, and that’s not a bet I’m ready to make. The play is the UNDER.
In Other News...
Ravens Center Battle Just Took A Concerning Turn For Lamar Jackson
The Ravens competition to replace Tyler Linderbaum at center hit an uneasy pause Thursday when Danny Pinter left a joint practice with the Vikings on a cart after suffering an injury. Pinter had been one of the players working to steady that spot for Baltimore, a role that matters plenty for an offense built around Lamar Jacksons timing, protection and pre-snap flexibility.
For now, the team is waiting on further testing to learn just how serious the issue is and what it means for Pinters availability. Even without a final answer, the timing alone adds stress to a position battle that was already worth watching closely, because Baltimore needs clarity in the middle before the season begins to take shape. [Read more 🡒]
Ravens Turn Two Familiar Starting Jobs Into Critical Camp Battles
The Ravens offseason reset has already shown up in a couple of the most important spots on the field. After the coaching staff overhaul and roster moves that brought in Trey Hendrickson and locked up Zay Flowers, training camp has become less about sorting through star power and more about proving who can actually hold down jobs. Two familiar starting roles have turned into real competitions, and that fits the tone of this new staff, which has made clear that reputation only goes so far.
At weakside linebacker and at center, the pressure is on players who were expected to be part of the solution rather than the question. Baltimore has Trenton Simpson in a fight for snaps as the defense looks for faster processing at the position, while the interior line battle has put Danny Pinter in the crosshairs as the Ravens search for steadier play in the middle. In both cases, the message is the same: the new staff wants dependable answers, and the preseason is giving them a chance to see which options hold up. [Read more 🡒]
Ravens Tight End Depth Suddenly Has A Name Fans Need To Watch
The Ravens tight end room looked a little different after last years Mark Andrews extension, and the ripple effects were felt when Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar both moved on in free agency. That left Baltimore with a fresh chance to identify the next pass-catching option behind Andrews, and rookie Matthew Hibner quickly put his name into the conversation during his first preseason action.
Hibner has already shown the kind of early polish that can earn a young tight end a real role in this offense, especially with the Ravens always valuing depth at the position. His debut was strong enough to turn heads inside the league, and if he keeps stacking practices and preseason reps, Baltimore may have found a player who can grow from rotational piece into a long-term contributor. [Read more 🡒]