Sunday night’s matchup between the 11-3 New England Patriots and the 7-7 Baltimore Ravens might look lopsided on paper, but don’t let the records fool you-this one has all the makings of a down-to-the-wire battle.
The Patriots are limping into this game, and not just metaphorically. Five starters on defense are dealing with injuries, and that’s a major red flag when you’re about to line up across from Derrick Henry. Baltimore’s bruising back is still every bit the problem he was in his prime-big, fast, and nearly impossible to bring down when he gets into rhythm.
Mike Vrabel knows that better than most. He coached Henry for six seasons in Tennessee, and now he has the unenviable task of trying to stop him.
Vrabel didn’t mince words when asked about Henry this week, calling him a “unique player” with “great speed and great power.” That’s coach-speak for: “We’ve got our hands full.”
And he’s right. Henry is fifth in the league in both rushing yards (1,125) and touchdowns (10), and he’s been heating up as the season hits the home stretch.
Since Week 11, New England’s defense has cratered against the run, ranking 30th in expected points added (EPA) per rush. That’s not just bad-it’s bottom-of-the-barrel bad.
Injuries aren’t helping. Three of the Patriots’ starting linebackers-Christian Elliss, Harold Landry III, and Robert Spillane-have all been limited by illness or injury this week.
Spillane didn’t even suit up in last week’s 35-31 loss to the Bills, and Buffalo made the most of it. James Cook gashed them for 107 yards and two scores on 22 carries.
If Spillane and company can’t go on Sunday, Henry could be in for a monster night.
That puts a lot of pressure on New England’s offense to keep pace. The good news?
Baltimore’s pass defense has been vulnerable. They’re allowing 233.4 passing yards per game-seventh-most in the league-and that could open the door for Drake Maye to go to work.
Maye has quietly put together a strong rookie campaign, throwing for 3,567 yards and 23 touchdowns. He’s shown poise, arm strength, and the ability to push the ball downfield when needed. If he can exploit Baltimore’s secondary and turn this into a shootout, the Patriots might be able to offset whatever damage Henry does on the ground.
So while the Patriots come in with the better record, this game is anything but a gimme. Between Henry’s power running, New England’s banged-up front seven, and a Ravens team fighting for playoff life, Sunday night could be a slugfest. And in that kind of game, it’s not always the better team on paper that walks away with the win-it’s the one that holds up best in the trenches.