The Ravens head to Dallas on Sunday afternoon looking to get right after a frustrating Week 2, and the market has already nudged toward Baltimore. What started as a -3 line has climbed to -3.5, while the total has also ticked up a point.
That movement makes sense if you trust the numbers from Baltimore’s first two games. The Ravens are still sitting atop the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +2.1, and their offense has been strong enough to rank inside the top six in both EPA per play and success rate. The issue has come on the other side of the ball, where the defense has lived more in the middle of the pack than at the elite level Baltimore usually wants.
Even so, the Ravens’ loss to the Saints doesn’t appear to be changing the broader view much. SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan pointed to how much Baltimore “deserve[d]” to win that game, only to come out on the wrong side of the result. His read is that the performance was better than the final score suggested, and the underlying numbers back that up.
Dallas, meanwhile, has looked like a familiar problem. The Cowboys opened with a road loss to the Giants, then bounced back with a blowout of the Commanders in Week 2.
But their defense remains the glaring concern, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and 31st in opponent success rate. If that holds, the Cowboys may need their offense to answer nearly every Baltimore drive just to stay in range.
That’s the key to this matchup: both teams have been giving up points, and both offenses should have chances to move the ball. Baltimore has allowed 47 points through two games, while Dallas has given up 48.
The Ravens also have recent history on their side. They beat the Cowboys 28-25 in the last meeting on Sept. 22, 2024.
Baltimore’s profile still looks stronger, and the matchup in Dallas lines up with that edge. The Ravens should arrive hungry, and the Cowboys haven’t done enough yet to suggest they can consistently slow them down.
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Ravens Just Got The Response They Needed From Declan Doyle
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Ravens Survived Absolute Chaos And Still Closed It Out
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Jacksons 27-yard strike to Zay Flowers late in the fourth quarter put the Ravens in position for the winning try, capping a night that also featured strong showings from Derrick Henry and Dak Prescott. It was the kind of chaotic, high-pressure opener that could have swung either way, and Baltimore left Brazil with a win it had to fight all the way to the final kick to secure. [Read more 🡒]