Why the AFC Coaching Carousel Keeps Spinning: Blame It on Mahomes
You can point to a missed field goal in Pittsburgh. You can talk about that controversial call in Denver. You can even chalk it up to the NFL being the most cutthroat league in American sports - where nearly a third of head coaches will be replaced before the 2026 season kicks off.
But if you’re looking for the real reason two of the most successful coaches of the past decade just lost their jobs, look west. Look toward Kansas City. And yes, go ahead and blame it on Patrick Mahomes.
Because even in a season where Mahomes wasn’t around to terrorize the AFC - sidelined by a torn ACL - his shadow still loomed large. And his absence only made it more glaring when the two quarterbacks most expected to capitalize, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, came up short once again.
Let’s start with the headlines: Sean McDermott is out in Buffalo. John Harbaugh was shown the door in Baltimore less than two weeks earlier.
That’s not just surprising - it’s seismic. These are two coaches who’ve combined for 14 playoff appearances since 2017.
Harbaugh won a Super Bowl in 2012. McDermott helped transform the Bills from also-rans into perennial contenders.
But in this league, “good” isn’t good enough. Not when you’ve got franchise quarterbacks in their prime and no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. And not when Mahomes - even while rehabbing - remains the measuring stick.
The Mahomes Effect: Still Haunting the AFC
Let’s be clear: Mahomes wasn’t even in the playoffs this year. But his absence created a vacuum, and the expectation was that someone - finally - would fill it.
Lamar Jackson had a shot to take Baltimore back to the big stage. Josh Allen looked poised to break through.
Instead, both fell short in gut-wrenching fashion.
Jackson’s Ravens missed the playoffs altogether, losing a win-and-in AFC North title clash to Pittsburgh on the final night of the regular season. Allen’s Bills, after an impressive road win over Jacksonville in the Wild Card round, pushed the top-seeded Denver Broncos to overtime - only to lose in crushing fashion.
This time, Allen didn’t get knocked out by Mahomes or another top-tier QB. He lost to a Broncos team that was down to its backup quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, after Bo Nix went down with a season-ending ankle injury on Denver’s final drive. And that stings even more.
Because now, it’ll be either Stidham or another second-year QB, Drake Maye, representing the AFC in the Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium. And for owners like Terry Pegula in Buffalo and Steve Bisciotti in Baltimore, watching one of those names - not Mahomes, not Brady, not Burrow - hoist the Lombardi Trophy? That’s a tough pill to swallow.
Impatience in the Mahomes Era
Back in 2020, Kim Pegula - then still actively involved in running the Bills - offered a telling quote about life in the AFC.
“We’ve been sitting here for years trying to figure out how to beat Tom Brady,” she said. “Now, he’s finally gone, and guess what? We have to deal with Patrick Mahomes for the next 15 years.”
That wasn’t hyperbole. Since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, Mahomes has been to five Super Bowls and won three. Until this season, his worst finish was an overtime loss in the AFC title game - first to Brady in 2018, then to Joe Burrow in 2021.
He’s 30 years old. And he’s already halfway to Brady’s nine AFC titles.
So yes, when Mahomes is out of the picture, the expectation is that someone else - anyone else - should finally take advantage. That didn’t happen. And in Buffalo and Baltimore, that failure cost two respected coaches their jobs.
High Stakes, Short Leashes
The Ravens and Bills are still two of the most attractive coaching jobs in football. They’ve got elite quarterbacks, strong rosters, and ownership groups willing to spend.
But whoever steps in next won’t be walking into a rebuild. They’ll be expected to win - and win big - right away.
And that’s where the pressure really ratchets up. Because it’s not just about living up to what Harbaugh and McDermott built.
It’s about surpassing it. The new coaches will be judged not by playoff berths or division titles, but by whether they can finally get Allen and Jackson to the Super Bowl stage.
That’s what happened in Denver a decade ago. After a divisional-round loss to the Colts, GM John Elway fired John Fox - despite four straight division titles and a Super Bowl appearance. A year later, Gary Kubiak took over and delivered a Super Bowl win in Santa Clara.
That’s the blueprint. But it’s not easy.
Back then, it took a historically dominant Broncos defense to help Peyton Manning get past Brady and the Patriots. Now, Allen and Jackson face a similarly loaded AFC, with names like Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Maye all in the mix.
And then, of course, there’s that guy in Kansas City. No.
- The one who’s already beaten Jackson in an AFC Championship Game and taken down Allen twice in that same setting.
The one who says his rehab is “going great” and that he’s aiming to be ready for the 2026 opener.
The Road Still Runs Through Kansas City
Mahomes has made it clear what his goal is: Super Bowl trip No. 6.
Ring No. 4.
And based on everything we’ve seen from him so far, would anyone be surprised if he pulls it off?
That’s the reality for the rest of the AFC. Even when Mahomes isn’t on the field, he’s still shaping the conference.
Still dictating the stakes. Still setting the bar.
So if you’re wondering why two highly successful coaches are suddenly out of work, don’t overthink it.
Blame it on Mahomes.