Zach Eflin would like another run in Baltimore, even after a miserable 2025 cut short by injury.
The Orioles right-hander is coming off a season that never got off the ground. He was limited to 71 1/3 innings and finished with a 5.93 ERA, then left his first start because of elbow discomfort before undergoing Tommy John surgery in early April. Baltimore still brought him back last winter on a one-year, $10MM deal, but the bet never paid off for either side.
Now the question is what comes next. Eflin’s contract includes a $25MM mutual option for 2027, but the Orioles are expected to buy it out for $2MM. That would likely close the book on his current stint with the club, though Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the 32-year-old would “love to stay” with the Orioles.
A return would almost certainly have to come on a much cheaper deal. Because he is expected to miss a significant chunk of next season while rehabbing, Eflin could look for a two-year contract once he hits the open market. Whoever signs him will be betting on the same thing Baltimore once did: that the right-hander can come back healthy and settle again into a reliable mid-rotation role.
There is still a recent stretch that gives teams something to work with. Between Tampa Bay and Baltimore, Eflin turned in a strong two-year run spanning 59 starts and 343 innings, posting a 3.54 ERA with underlying numbers that backed it up.
His xERA sat at 3.36, while his FIP was 3.37, his xFIP 3.45 and his SIERA 3.62. He also walked just 3.5% of opposing hitters in that span, second only to the Mariners’ George Kirby at 2.7%.
Eflin has never been the type to overpower lineups. He does not light up radar guns, and his strikeout rate sits at 20.7%.
But he has long made a living by avoiding walks and keeping the ball on the ground, with a 5.7% walk rate and 43.8% ground-ball rate helping him stick as a starter since debuting with the Phillies in 2016. His early years were rough, and 2025 was another setback, but from 2018-24 he worked to a useful 4.07 ERA across 949 2/3 innings with similar peripherals.
Baltimore could be dealing with a much different rotation picture by then. Eflin is one of three veteran starters the Orioles could lose in free agency.
Trevor Rogers is a strong qualifying offer candidate and should attract plenty of attention if he declines and reaches the market. Chris Bassitt, also set to hit free agency, is considering retirement at 37.
Right now, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Brandon Young are the only locks for the Orioles’ 2027 rotation, with Cade Povich among the other internal options. President of baseball operations Mike Elias will likely have to search both free agency and the trade market for answers.
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Orioles Still Have One Clear Rotation Need After Locking Up Key Arms
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Even after those commitments, the rotation still does not look finished, and that is where the offseason focus is likely to stay. Trevor Rogers is expected to receive a qualifying offer as free agency chatter builds, and the Orioles remain in the market for another starter who can help settle the group. Spring training is set to bring a competition among several candidates, but the front office still has a clear need if it wants the rotation to feel as secure as the rest of the roster now does. [Read more 🡒]
Colton Cowser Still Has One Big Hurdle In Baltimore
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Orioles Fans Just Got A Painful Reminder At Yankee Stadium
Three decades later, the old wound still has a way of reopening whenever Yankee Stadium enters the conversation. The 1996 ALCS remains part of Orioles lore for all the wrong reasons, with Jeffrey Maiers interference on a Derek Jeter drive freezing in the memory of Baltimore fans as one of the most famous missed calls in postseason history.
The uncomfortable twist is how a recent similar scene only sharpened the contrast. A routine-seeming ball near the wall brought back the same kind of tension, only this time replay stepped in and the ruling went the other way, underscoring how different the outcome might have been all those years ago. For Orioles followers, it was a painful reminder that some baseball scars never really fade, especially when the backdrop is the Bronx. [Read more 🡒]