The Orioles don’t need to overthink Trevor Rogers this offseason. When the qualifying offer window opens five days after the World Series, he looks like the clearest yes on Baltimore’s board.
This year’s qualifying offer will be worth just over $23 million, and it’s reserved for players who are reaching free agency for the first time after spending the entire season with one club. Rogers fits that bill after the last two and a half years with the Orioles, and the case for tagging him is simple: the market lines up almost too neatly.
The 2026-27 free agent class is light on star power, especially on the left-handed pitching side. That puts Rogers in a strong spot as one of the better arms available, and at 29, he’s at the age where teams are far more willing to talk about four- and five-year deals. That should keep plenty of interest on him if Baltimore makes the offer and he turns it down.
And that’s the key point here: the Orioles would be fine either way. If Rogers declines, they get draft pick compensation.
If he accepts, they’ve locked in a pitcher who would jump right back to the top of the rotation, unless Baltimore adds another starter. The price is steep for one season, but it’s still just one season.
There’s also a path where the qualifying offer doesn’t scare the market off, but does make a longer-term reunion harder to price for other clubs. That kind of setup has happened before.
Pete Alonso is the example here: the Mets gave him the QO in his first shot at free agency, he declined, and other teams stayed away from a long-term commitment. He ended up back in New York on a one-plus-one deal with an opt-out after the first year.
If that sort of outcome were to land with Rogers, Baltimore would probably take it in a heartbeat.
For the Orioles, this is one of those offseason decisions that feels almost automatic. Offer the QO to Rogers, and the club has a clean win in every direction: he accepts, he declines, or the market pushes him back toward a shorter deal. That’s about as tidy as these things get.
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