When it comes to the Orioles' pitching rotation, there's a buzz around Kyle Bradish, but let's not overlook Trevor Rogers. After a rocky start with the O's in 2024, Rogers turned heads last year with a record-breaking performance, boasting a 1.81 ERA over 18 starts. His efforts didn't go unnoticed, earning him the title of Most Valuable Oriole, a beacon of hope in an otherwise tough season for the team.
Now, here's where it gets interesting. While fans are hopeful, the projection systems like ZiPS and Steamer aren't entirely convinced that Rogers' brilliance will carry over into 2026.
ZiPS forecasts 25 starts with a 3.95 ERA and a 2.1 WAR, while Steamer predicts 26 starts, a 4.20 ERA, and a 1.9 WAR. These numbers suggest a notable regression from his standout 2025 season.
Why the skepticism? Well, projections rely on data, not emotions.
Rogers' previous seasons saw ERAs of 5.47, 4.00, and 4.92, which tempers expectations despite his recent success. Plus, his 2025 achievements came in just over half a season, adding another layer of caution to the predictions.
So, while Rogers has shown he can shine, the challenge will be maintaining that level over a full season. Orioles fans will be watching closely to see if he can defy the projections and continue his ascent as a key player in the rotation.