Trevor Rogers has put the Orioles in a spot they probably didn’t want to be in.
For a stretch early this season, the left-hander looked nothing like the arm that had made him the club’s staff ace. From April 14th to May 29th, Rogers took the ball seven times and the results were brutal: a 10.01 ERA, a 6.32 FIP, and losses in every one of those games.
The issues were obvious on the mound. His walks climbed, he couldn’t put hitters away with two strikes, and he kept failing to finish innings after getting to two outs.
That kind of skid naturally changed the conversation around him. Before the slump, Rogers was the kind of pitcher Orioles fans wanted locked up before he could reach free agency at the end of this season. Once things went sideways, the question shifted fast: should Baltimore even try to extend him, or just let him walk?
Now the picture looks very different.
Since June began, Rogers has been back on track, turning in seven starts with a 1.51 ERA. He’s looked far more like the 2025 version of himself, the one who drew Cy Young votes despite throwing only 119 innings. The two-strike problems and the two-out meltdowns have faded, and his ground ball rate has settled down too.
That turnaround matters because it arrives at a messy moment for the Orioles. With the team out of the playoff race, Rogers’ rebound has turned him into one of the biggest decisions facing the front office at the trade deadline.
Do they move him now while his value is back up and try to land the kind of prospect package that could help reshape the roster? Or do they keep him, try to work out a new deal this offseason, and make him part of the rotation moving forward?
There’s a real case for both paths.
Trading him would give the Orioles a chance to add to a farm system that needs help. They also don’t have many other deadline pieces who could bring back a meaningful return, so if another club is ready to offer real prospects for Rogers, Baltimore has to listen.
But keeping him has its own appeal. If the Orioles deal him away, they’ll need to replace that production later, and starting pitching has long been a problem area for this organization.
Rogers has already shown he can pitch well in Baltimore, and he has also said that he likes pitching for the Orioles. That combination is hard to find.
In the end, this comes down to how confident the Orioles are that they can keep him. The nightmare scenario is obvious: they pass on a solid prospect haul now, then watch another team outbid them in free agency, leaving Baltimore with nothing more than maybe an extra draft pick if they make him the QO.
Rogers still has half a season left to shape the market, and nobody can know for sure what other teams will be willing to do once the offseason arrives. But the Orioles can at least get a read on what he’s expecting.
If that number works, they should keep him. If it doesn’t, the deadline is the cleanest time to move him.
In Other News...
Dodgers Trade Proposal Puts Orioles In A Tough Spot With Lefty
The Orioles keep getting pulled into the pitching market chatter, and Trevor Rogers is the kind of arm that naturally draws it. He has been uneven enough over the full season to leave plenty of questions, but his recent stretch has also reminded teams why left-handed starters with upside still carry real appeal in July. For Baltimore, that creates the familiar tension of weighing short-term value against the kind of trade interest that can reshape a deadline conversation.
What makes the situation trickier is the timing. Rogers would come with no long-term control, so any deal has to be judged against the price of the return, not just the name value on the other side. The Dodgers are still shopping for pitching help and have bigger targets they could chase, which only adds to the sense that Baltimore could be asked to part with a useful arm without getting the kind of package that makes a move easy to justify. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fans May Never Forget This Missed Chance At An Ace
The Orioles were in position at the 2024 trade deadline to chase the kind of frontline starter every contender covets, and Tarik Skubal was sitting right there as the obvious prize. Detroit never completed a deal, Baltimore never got its ace, and the missed window has only grown more frustrating as the pitching market keeps reminding teams how rare those chances are.
MLB Network Insider Jon Morosi has framed it as the kind of opportunity Baltimore may not get back, especially with Skubals name already surfacing again as the 2025 deadline draws closer. For an Orioles club that has spent the last year trying to balance present urgency with future value, the lingering question is whether the front office will be willing to pay the price this time around. [Read more 🡒]
Ryan Mountcastle Just Became An Orioles Deadline Tension Point
Ryan Mountcastle is still working back from the 60-day injured list, and the Orioles at least have some clarity on the broad outline of his recovery. President of baseball operations Mike Elias said Mountcastle is progressing, with a return possible after the All-Star break, but he stopped short of putting a date on it. For a team in the middle of a rebuild, that leaves one of its more recognizable bats in a familiar holding pattern: close enough to matter, not quite close enough to know exactly where he fits.
The bigger question is what happens once he is ready. Baltimore has enough uncertainty around the roster that Mountcastles next step is not just about health, but about opportunity, and there is already a sense that the Orioles could listen if the right trade angle emerges before the Aug. 3 deadline. For now, the club is still waiting on the same thing everyone else is - a clearer picture of when he is back, and what role he would actually have when he gets there. [Read more 🡒]