The Orioles may be calling themselves buyers with the August 3 trade deadline getting closer, but the real swing piece in July might be Trevor Rogers.
That’s the spot Baltimore is in right now: a sub-.500 team trying to act like a contender because the American League is soft enough to leave the door cracked. Mike Elias wouldn’t have always thought that way, but the Orioles have spent aggressively, expectations are higher, and there’s enough room in the standings to imagine a run. There’s also a very real chance the whole thing falls apart.
If that happens, the Orioles will have decisions to make fast. Adley Rutschman has been floated as a possible trade candidate, though that still feels unlikely.
The more obvious move would be unloading expiring contracts, including Taylor Ward, Andrew Kittredge again, and Chris Bassitt if he gets healthy. But the biggest name they could move is also one of the most valuable arms on the market: Rogers.
That’s because contenders are always hunting pitching, and not just any pitching. They want someone they trust when the games tighten up in October. Rogers has looked like that kind of arm for much of the last two seasons.
His 2025 season was a reminder of how dominant he can be. He started the year on the IL after a partial right kneecap dislocation, then came back when the Orioles were at their lowest point in late May, right after Brandon Hyde was fired.
Baltimore’s turnaround lined up with Rogers joining the rotation, and from that point through the end of the season he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. In 109.2 innings, he posted a 1.81 ERA, 2.82 FIP and 0.903 WHIP, good enough for ninth in AL Cy Young voting even though he missed two months.
This season has been bumpier. Rogers owns a 4.70 ERA over 84.1 innings, which doesn’t scream ace at first glance.
But the shape of the year matters. He opened with a 1.89 ERA and 2.58 FIP over his first three starts, then hit a brutal stretch from April 14 to May 24 when he didn’t get past five innings and put up an 11.03 ERA.
A flu that landed him on the IL for more than two weeks was part of that mess. Since then, he’s started to settle back in.
Since May 29, Rogers has a 2.38 ERA and has allowed only three home runs in seven starts. Since June 20, the numbers get even sharper: a 0.49 ERA and 2.40 FIP.
There are still real concerns. Rogers has never been a volume horse, and his career high in a big league season is 133 innings, set back in 2021.
That naturally raises questions about how he’d hold up in September or October. He also isn’t going to overwhelm hitters with velocity or strikeout totals; his 6.94 K/9 this season reflects that.
Even so, the appeal is obvious. His contract is short and cheap, which makes him easier to acquire and easier to fit onto a payroll.
He’s on a one-year, $6.2 million deal, and a team trading for him would only owe the prorated portion. That matters when a player like Sonny Gray can come with a $30 million mutual option for ’27 or a $10 million buyout hanging over the deal.
If Baltimore decides not to move him, there’s still a path to value next winter through draft compensation. That route would require the Orioles to make Rogers a qualifying offer, have him decline it, and then watch another club sign him. Even that could get complicated depending on how the current CBA negotiations shake out.
If the Orioles do decide to sell, the return could look something like what the Diamondbacks got from the Rangers for Merrill Kelly last summer. Kelly had a 3.22 ERA at the time and was on an expiring deal, though he was older and had a steadier track record than Rogers.
Arizona landed Texas’s fifth-, ninth- and 13th-ranked prospects, according to MLB Pipeline. Another possible comp is the Dustin May deal between the Dodgers and Red Sox, which sent Boston’s fifth- and 27th-ranked prospects to Los Angeles, also according to Pipeline.
However Baltimore handles the deadline, Rogers is the player who could shape the whole month. If he keeps pitching like he has lately, the Orioles can keep climbing and maybe push Elias toward adding help.
If he slips, the trade return and the season itself both take a hit. For Orioles fans, that makes every Rogers start in July feel like a crossroads.
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Contender Now Linked To One Orioles Bat Fans Feared Losing
The trade deadline is starting to draw some familiar names into the rumor mill, and for Orioles fans, one of the more uncomfortable ones is a bat they have grown attached to. CBS Sports Mike Axisa recently pegged Taylor Ward as a possible fit for a Phillies club that has improved under Don Mattingly and looks like a buyer, with the appeal tied to his on-base ability and right-handed swing even as his home run total has dipped.
For Baltimore, the intrigue is less about Philadelphias needs than what Ward represents if the market keeps warming up. He is viewed as the kind of rental a contender can chase before he reaches free agency after the season, which is exactly the sort of profile that tends to stir deadline noise around a player who has become part of the Orioles everyday picture. The question now is how aggressive that pursuit gets, and whether Baltimore is forced to weigh short-term value against the kind of return that could make moving him easier to stomach. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Suddenly Have A Taylor Ward Problem At The Worst Time
Taylor Ward gave the Orioles exactly the kind of early boost they were hoping for, working his way on base at a strong clip and producing enough in April to look like a real middle-of-the-order fit. Since then, though, the bat has cooled, and the difference has shown up in both his power and his ability to get on base, which has made his once-promising start feel more fragile as the calendar moves toward the trade deadline.
That slide has already been noticed outside Baltimore, too. ESPNs latest trade-chip rankings have Ward slipping from 12th in the first edition to 24th now, a reminder that his market is changing along with his production. The Orioles would love to see him straighten things out over the next stretch, not just because they need the offense, but because a stronger finish would give them a much better position when the deadline conversations really start to heat up. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Bullpen Concerns Just Grew As Another Lineup Shuffle Looms
The Orioles bullpen picture took another hit with Keegan Akin now seeking a second opinion on his left elbow, while Colin Selby remains on the 60-day injured list and Ryan Helsley is still working through treatment on his right elbow. For a club already trying to patch together innings, the latest medical updates only add to the pressure on a relief group that has been asked to absorb a lot this season.
At the same time, Baltimore is trying to manage the rest of the roster with an eye on a Cubs matchup that brings a left-handed starter into the mix. The lineup card reflects that balancing act, with the Orioles turning to several younger bats and moving pieces around as they look for the right combination, even as the bullpen uncertainty keeps hanging over the day. [Read more 🡒]