There’s a brutal way to measure how far the Orioles’ rebuild has gone off the rails: look at who has actually led each position group during the Elias years.
Not the prospects they sold everyone on. Not the draft capital.
Not the long list of names that were supposed to form the next core. Just the players who logged the most innings or plate appearances at each spot, and the results are a mess.
At catcher, Adley Rutschman still leads the way with 3,578 innings, followed by James McCann at 1,038 2/3 and Samuel Basallo at 548 2/3. Rutschman also tops the group in on-base percentage at .337, while Basallo has the best slugging percentage at .463 and the best OPS at .747.
But the bigger problem is how little Rutschman has actually been behind the plate compared with Bobby Witt Jr., who was taken one pick later and has 570 more plate appearances. Basallo, meanwhile, is not yet 22 and already has 15 HR and 42 RBIs in 64 games as a catcher.
The piece’s conclusion is blunt: if the Orioles don’t trade Rutschman now, they’re making a huge mistake.
First base tells its own story. Ryan Mountcastle leads with 3,287 innings, ahead of Ryan O’Hearn at 1,248 and Pete Alonso at 788 1/3.
Alonso owns the best numbers in the group with a .340 OBP, .453 SLG and .793 OPS. The expectation was that first base and DH would be a rotating strength, but Mountcastle is still around on the 60-day IL after years of offensive struggles, and the position never became the kind of movable feast the Orioles seemed to imagine.
Second base is another reminder of what might have been. Jackson Holliday has 1,984 innings there, with Rougned Odor at 1,019 1/3 and Adam Frazier at 948 2/3.
Jordan Westburg leads the offensive line with a .304 OBP, .476 SLG and .786 OPS. The article argues that if the Orioles had handled this correctly, Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, Gunnar Henderson at third and Westburg at second could have changed everything.
Instead, Holliday is being measured against what Frazier gave them, and that comparison does not flatter the rebuild.
Shortstop is where Elias’ best draft hit shows up. Gunnar Henderson leads with 4,053 innings, far ahead of Jorge Mateo at 2,200 1/3 and Holliday at 75.
Henderson also leads the group offensively with a .339 OBP, .472 SLG and .811 OPS. The piece calls him Elias’ best pick by far, but also notes that all the talk about collecting shortstops and their value never really translated at the big-league level, aside from Joey Ortiz helping bring back one season of Corbin Burnes.
At third base, Ramón Urías has the most innings at 2,695 2/3, followed by Westburg at 1,147 and Henderson at 767 1/3. Emmanuel Rivera has the best OBP in the group at .331, while Urías leads slugging at .415 and Rivera has the best OPS at .742.
The article points out that this is supposed to be a premium power position, yet the Orioles loaded up on supposed left-side infield impact bats and still ended up with Rivera getting 150 plate appearances at third. It also says Coby Mayo doesn’t have the glove for the spot, but he may still wind up there because there isn’t much else available, especially with Westburg hurt again.
Right field is another sore spot. Anthony Santander leads with 2,606 1/3 innings, ahead of Tyler O’Neill at 649 2/3 and Austin Hays at 479.
The offensive leader in the group is Ryan O’Hearn, with a .381 OBP, while Ramón Laureano has the best slugging percentage at .525 and O’Hearn again leads OPS at .890. The piece says it was pathetic that the Orioles couldn’t get anything from Heston Kjerstad, a top-two pick, even here.
It also questions whether they got enough back for sending O’Hearn and Laureano to the Padres at last year’s deadline, and notes that no homegrown player has come close to leading the group despite all the emphasis on college outfielders. Kyle Stowers, the article adds, would have fit Camden Yards.
In center field, Cedric Mullins leads the way with 4,016 innings, followed by Colton Cowser at 1,072 1/3 and Leody Taveras at 500 1/3. Taveras has the best OBP in the group at .322, while Mullins leads slugging at .415 and OPS at .725.
The article says the two first-round picks the Orioles used to try to replace Mullins can’t hit in the minors and/or stay healthy. Cowser gets singled out for the usual offensive flaws - he can’t hit lefties, can’t handle offspeed pitches, doesn’t get on base, and strikes out too much - while offering only sporadic power.
If the Orioles really believed he could handle the job, the piece says, he would already have far more innings there.
Left field rounds out the picture, and it’s not much prettier. Santander leads with a .357 OBP, .591 SLG and .948 OPS.
The article says Hays started an All-Star Game and the Orioles still didn’t sell high, instead waiting until they got a washed relief arm for him before he walked. It also argues Santander should probably have played left more often, but Hays was always in the way.
The Orioles, the piece says, mishandled their ballpark, drafted a pile of college outfielders, and still couldn’t produce anyone who could really handle right field, much less left field, in Mike and Sig’s version of OPCY.
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