Pete Alonso has spent his first Orioles season doing far more than living up to a massive contract. He’s been the center of everything Baltimore has done, and with the club coming off last night’s win in Colorado, the Orioles sit 0.5 GB of the final AL Wild Card spot.
Through 138 games in an Orioles uniform, Alonso has piled up the kind of numbers that make him impossible to ignore. He leads Baltimore in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBIs and OPS.
He’s on track to become the 10th Oriole with 40-plus homers in a season, he’ll unquestionably clear 100 RBIs, and he should become the first Oriole since Jonathan Villar in 2019 to play all 162 games. If he doesn’t end up the unanimous Most Valuable Oriole, that would feel like a miss.
The bigger question is whether his second-half surge has pushed him into the AL MVP mix. Since July 1, Alonso is hitting .305/.394/.558 with 13 homers and 32 RBIs in 51 games.
He has 17 multi-hit games in that stretch after collecting 20 over his first 87 games, and last week in St. Louis he posted his first four-hit game as an Oriole.
Over the past two months, he ranks fifth in the AL in hits, second in home runs, sixth in RBIs and second in OPS.
For most of the year, Yordan Alvarez looked like the safe pick for the AL MVP. The Astros DH is still on pace for the American League’s first Triple Crown season since Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
But that grip has loosened. Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson is batting .311, just five points behind Alvarez’s .316 for the batting title, Junior Caminero tied Alvarez at 37 home runs after going deep twice over the weekend, and Alonso is now only three RBIs back in that category.
Team success could matter just as much as the numbers. Outside of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the last AL MVP from a non-playoff team was Alex Rodriguez with the 2003 Texas Rangers.
Houston, even while sitting atop the AL West, is only one game over .500 and two games ahead of the second-place Rangers. If the Astros finish short of the postseason and Alvarez loses the Triple Crown chase, his hold on the award gets a lot shakier.
That opens a path, however slim, for Alonso. MVP voting has always leaned heavily on narrative, and Baltimore’s turnaround could give him a real storyline if the Orioles punch their ticket to October. The deadline departures of two of the team’s best hitters left Alonso as the lone dependable bat, and he’s answered by stabilizing the lineup while others have started to come along.
The odds still say this is Alvarez’s award to lose. FanDuel lists him at -20,000, with Alonso at +4500, the third-best odds behind Caminero.
Alonso also has to overcome the old first-base tax; outside of José Abreu in the shortened 2020 season, no first baseman has won AL MVP since Justin Morneau 20 years ago. That positional bias shows up in value metrics, too, with Alonso sitting 15th in bWAR despite his elite production and the best defense of his career.
Even if the MVP chase falls short, Alonso is headed for a huge finish. He’s in line for Baltimore’s first top-three MVP result since Chris Davis in 2013, and he’s also on pace to become the first first baseman since Adrian Gonzalez to win Silver Sluggers in both leagues.
For Baltimore, that’s a debut season worth remembering. For Alonso, it’s been an MVP-caliber year, even if Alvarez still looks like the favorite to finish with the trophy.
In Other News...
Orioles Just Set Up Another Tough Roster Decision
The Orioles roster expansion brought a familiar sort of September clutter to Camden Yards, with Heston Kjerstad and left-handed reliever Luis De Len promoted from Triple-A Norfolk as Baltimore opened up to 28 players. Cade Povich was sent back to Norfolk in the shuffle, a reminder that even as rosters grow, every addition still squeezes someone else out of the picture.
Luis Robert Jr. could also be activated for an upcoming game, which would force another move and sharpen the pressure on a group already being asked to sort out roles on the fly. For a club trying to balance late-season depth, left-handed pitching and an outfield that keeps getting more crowded, the next decision may be even trickier than the last. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Rotation Shuffle Just Raised A Bigger Stretch Run Question
The Orioles have already started to make August feel a little different on the mound, opening with Cade Povich last night and pushing Kyle Bradish to tonight before Trevor Rogers takes the ball Wednesday afternoon. Craig Albernaz said a six-man rotation is under consideration, and with rosters expanding, Baltimore is also planning to add another pitcher while Luis Robert Jr. is expected to come aboard as the new position player.
The timing matters because this is no longer just about getting through a series, it is about how the club wants to handle the final months of the season. Bradishs recent struggles have only sharpened the discussion, especially after some uneven first-inning work, and the Orioles now have to decide whether the shuffle is a short-term convenience or the start of a broader rotation plan for the stretch run. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Roster Crunch Is Putting Heston Kjerstad Back In Focus
Heston Kjerstad is on track to finally get back into the Orioles mix in September, a welcome development after the outfielder spent much of the season working his way back from health setbacks. His return would give Baltimore another left-handed bat to sort into a roster that is about to get even more crowded, especially with the club expecting another outfield addition in the same stretch.
Luis Robert Jr. is also anticipated to join the Orioles, creating a squeeze that could force the team into some difficult decisions on the fringe of the roster. Christian Franklin may be the one sent down once Robert arrives, while Flix Bautista remains on a slower path back and is not expected to return right away because he still needs more rehab outings, leaving Baltimore to manage both reinforcements and the timing of its bullpen help. [Read more 🡒]