With 31 games left, the Orioles don’t have much margin for error. They’re 2.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot after the Guardians won last night, and the path back into the race is still there.
Baltimore has nine games left against the Guardians and Blue Jays, two clubs it’s chasing for that third Wild Card berth, plus six more against the A’s and Rockies. But the bigger issue has been the same all season: the offense has too often gone quiet.
Since the beginning of July, Baltimore’s pitching has held up its end. The Orioles own the seventh-best ERA in baseball over that span at 3.71, sitting just behind another playoff contender in the Guardians.
The lineup, though, has lagged behind, ranking 20th in the majors with 4.23 runs per game since July 1. If the Orioles are going to get back to .500 for the first time since they were 15-15 on April 30, they need a few bats to rediscover what made them dangerous in the first place.
Jackson Holliday is at the top of that list. July looked like the month he had truly arrived, with the 22-year-old posting a .500 OBP, a .368 average and a .421 slugging percentage.
It was the kind of stretch that made him look like the hitter Baltimore had been waiting for, the same one who tore through the minors. August has been a different story.
In 21 games this month, Holliday is hitting .165/.221/.266, and he has more strikeouts, 19, than hits, 13. The timing isn’t hard to spot either: while Holliday was rolling in July, the Orioles went 15-8.
Since the downturn, Baltimore is 9-12 in August.
There’s also the lineup context. Since August 7, Holliday has hit third or higher, and he has been Baltimore’s leadoff hitter in each of its last six games.
Craig Albernaz clearly trusted what he saw in July, and that trust is likely to keep Holliday in front of the order the rest of the way. If the offense is going to find a rhythm, the guy setting the table has to do more than just take the first seat.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand was supposed to be another jolt. He landed with the Orioles because of Blaze Alexander’s injury, and his first week and a half made him look like a real difference-maker.
In his first nine games after arriving on July 18, he went 11-for-34, hit .324, and drove in 11 runs while launching three homers. That start had people ready to pencil him in at third base for the stretch run.
Then the production cooled off fast. Encarnacion-Strand is hitting .177/.224/.355 in August, and he has struck out 21 times in 62 at-bats, a 33.9% clip.
He has still done damage against lefties this season, batting .286 with a 1.016 OPS against southpaws. Against right-handers, though, the numbers fall off sharply: a .197 average and .563 OPS.
Those splits mirror what Coby Mayo has shown, except Mayo has actually been producing this month, with an August OPS nearly 300 points higher than Encarnacion-Strand’s.
That leaves CES under plenty of pressure. With Mayo hitting, Samuel Basallo back in the fold and Alexander’s return supposedly on the horizon, he is trying to help the postseason push while also trying to hold onto his spot.
The outfield has its own race for relevance, and Tyler O’Neill or Leody Taveras could be the ones to give it a lift. Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers have already established themselves as the main offensive pieces out there, with Cowser doing it through his all-around play and Beavers supplying the clutch hits. That leaves O’Neill, Taveras or Christian Franklin to fill out the group, and if one of them is going to catch fire, O’Neill or Taveras feels like the likeliest bet.
O’Neill showed what he can still bring last month. In only 42 at-bats in July, he hit five home runs and put up a 1.009 OPS, looking like the best version of himself in black and orange.
This month, he has been getting more run and has flashed with a handful of web gems, but the offense has dipped. His slugging percentage has dropped from .691 in July to .404 in August.
Taveras is the other side of that coin. His game is built more around contact and balance than pure power, which makes him a different kind of fit in Baltimore’s lineup.
After rough months in June and July, he has shown a little life in August, posting a .674 OPS in 63 at-bats. If he can become a secondary table setter near the bottom of the order, he could help give the Orioles the depth they need to stay in the race all the way to the finish.
In Other News...
Orioles Suddenly Need Answers On Tyler O'Neill's Shoulder
Tyler ONeills recent absence has pushed a familiar Orioles concern back into the spotlight, with the outfielder sitting out because of right shoulder soreness and heading for an MRI. What had initially sounded like a manageable issue has taken on a more serious tone, and manager Craig Albernaz acknowledged as much, leaving Baltimore to wait on a clearer read before it can settle on a timeline.
Luis Vzquez was traveling to join the club as a potential roster replacement, a sign the Orioles are preparing for at least some short-term shuffling while they sort out ONeills status. For a team already trying to keep its lineup intact, the next update on the shoulder could determine whether this is a brief interruption or a deeper concern. [Read more 🡒]
Jackson Holliday Has A Personal Reason This Busch Stadium Game Hits Different
Jackson Holliday is set to lead off and play second base for Baltimore at Busch Stadium, and this one figures to feel a little different than a normal road game. It will be his first time playing there, even though the ballpark has been part of his life for years because his father, Matt Holliday, spent a memorable run with the Cardinals. For Jackson, the setting comes with the kind of built-in history most players only pick up by accident.
He has been around St. Louis enough to have childhood memories tied to the stadium, including the 2011 World Series and visits to his childhood home. So while the Orioles are just trying to get through another game on the schedule, Holliday is walking into a place loaded with family, familiar scenes and old memories. It gives this matchup a personal layer that goes well beyond the standings. [Read more 🡒]
Jackson Holliday Just Gave Orioles Fans Another Reason To Believe
Busch Stadium brought back a lot for Jackson Holliday long before he stepped into the batters box there this week. The 22-year-old Orioles infielder grew up making trips to St. Louis during his father Matt Hollidays playing days, and this one had a different feel with family watching from the stands as Jackson took another turn on a stage that has long been part of his baseball story.
He gave them plenty to enjoy. Holliday reached base multiple times in the game, another encouraging sign for an Orioles lineup looking for steady production from one of its most important young pieces. Matt Holliday said he is proud of his sons progress and has tried to be a supportive parent first, and nights like this only add to the sense that Jackson is settling into the big leagues on his own terms. [Read more 🡒]