The Baltimore Orioles made waves earlier this offseason by acquiring right-hander Shane Baz in a move that, on paper, looked like a smart bet on upside. Baz, a former first-round pick with electric stuff and team control through 2028, checks a lot of boxes for a club looking to solidify its rotation. But as pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it’s becoming clear that Baltimore’s expectations for Baz might go beyond just filling out the back end of the rotation.
Initially, the assumption was that Baz would slide in as the Orioles’ No. 4 starter-perhaps behind a bigger-name addition who never came. But if you listen to the tone coming out of camp, the Orioles are thinking much bigger. General Manager Mike Elias has expressed confidence in the rotation as it stands, and new manager Craig Albernaz didn’t hold back when asked about Baz’s potential ceiling.
“Shane Baz’s upside is a Cy Young Award winner,” Albernaz said. “He still has the same elite stuff.
It’s just allowing him to be a better version of himself. Shane is a competitor and a great worker.”
That’s high praise-and not without merit. Baz has long been viewed as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm.
His fastball pops, his slider is sharp, and when he’s on, the stuff absolutely plays at the big-league level. The Orioles are clearly betting on that talent translating into consistency.
But there’s also a reality check here. Baz has yet to put together a full, dominant season in the majors.
He’s made 30 starts just once, and the last time we saw him in extended action with the Rays, he posted a 4.87 ERA across 166 innings. That’s not ace-level production-it’s the profile of a work-in-progress.
And when a team like Tampa Bay, known for maximizing pitching talent, decides to move on, it’s worth asking why.
This isn’t to say Baz can’t take a leap in 2026. He’s only 26 years old, and the tools are still there.
But Baltimore’s belief in his upside shouldn’t overshadow what’s been a glaring need all winter: a true frontline starter. The Orioles entered the offseason with a clear priority to add a top-tier arm, and as of now, that box remains unchecked.
Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander are off the board, both landing with the Tigers. Zac Gallen, a name that had been floated in speculation, doesn’t appear to be headed to Camden Yards either. And while Baltimore did make a notable move by handing Chris Bassitt an $18 million deal, that’s not exactly the kind of ace-caliber splash fans were hoping for.
So here’s where things stand: if Baz blossoms into a legitimate top-of-the-rotation force, the Orioles’ bet will look brilliant. But if he struggles with the same inconsistencies that have defined his career so far, the lack of a true No. 1 could loom large-especially for a team with postseason aspirations.
There’s no question Baz has the tools to be special. What remains to be seen is whether Baltimore’s confidence in him is a calculated risk-or a way to paper over an offseason that came up short in one critical area.