Orioles Trade Debate Just Took A Risky Turn At GM Meetings

With increased trade activity expected at the GM meetings, the Baltimore Orioles must navigate the fine line between strategic and risky moves to optimize their roster.

The Orioles may not be the loudest team in the room at the GM Meetings, but this week in Las Vegas could still bring a few clues about how they plan to attack the offseason. With the lockout looming and the market expected to get jumpy, Baltimore has a chance to explore trade ideas that could reshape the roster - for better or worse.

One path that makes sense is a deal for Mariners right-hander George Kirby. Seattle may be looking to add offense by moving pitching, and Baltimore has the kind of pieces that could make that conversation real.

The Orioles have a surplus of infield talent, with Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Blaze Alexander all in the mix, plus a crop of upper-minors arms close to the majors. They could also dangle outfielders like Colton Cowser or Dylan Beavers if that’s what it takes to meet Seattle’s needs.

Kirby’s contract situation adds to the appeal. Logan Gilbert and the Mariners are reportedly not expected to reach an extension before he reaches free agency after the 2027 season, and one-year rental trades may be hard to come by before the lockout.

Kirby, by contrast, comes with an extra year of team control and an arbitration salary estimate of $9.8 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors. That kind of cost control matters.

The numbers from last season weren’t pretty - Kirby posted a career-low 20% strikeout rate and a career-high 4.33 ERA - but there’s still a case for believing a change of scenery could help. The former Elon standout threw seven different pitches in 2026, per Baseball Savant, and he’s known for constantly tinkering with his arsenal. Baltimore has had some success with pitchers like that, and the Orioles may feel they can help him rediscover the version of himself they saw in 2023 and 2024.

If the Orioles want to swing bigger, the most dramatic move would be dealing Jackson Holliday. Moving the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft just days before his 23rd birthday would send a clear message.

Holliday has not yet delivered at the big-league level, but he’s still young enough to develop into a solid player. The question is whether Baltimore wants to keep waiting.

Health complicates the picture. Holliday missed all of spring training after breaking his hamate shortly before camp opened, then his minor league rehab was paused because of pain and discomfort from the surgery. His 2026 season ended with wrist surgery, and the source material makes clear there’s little reason to believe he was healthy at any point this year.

Even so, he could be used to land help in the outfield or rotation. A move like that would also clear up the infield crowding, allowing Jordan Westburg to slide to second base while third base is handled by some combination of Mayo, Alexander, and Encarnacion-Strand. It wouldn’t be shocking if Holliday is moved, but it would still qualify as a bold step for a front office that has leaned heavily on homegrown talent.

The move the Orioles should avoid is a trade for Ketel Marte. Second base is a real issue, and if Baltimore does decide to move Holliday or another infielder, the temptation to chase a name like Marte will be there. It shouldn’t be.

Marte, now 33, had his worst offensive season since 2022, batting .249 with a 103 wRC+ over 141 games for the Diamondbacks. There are reasons to think he could bounce back - his .280 expected batting average suggests last season may not have fully reflected his true level, and his 8% walk rate could rise back toward the 10-11% range he’s shown before - but the fit gets messy fast.

The contract is part of the problem. Spotrac has Marte making north of $13 million in 2027, which could be fine if he rebounds, but he’s also set to make $20 million-plus in each of the next three seasons after that. That’s a heavy commitment for a player entering his mid-30s.

If Baltimore is serious about using Holliday elsewhere or reshuffling the infield, second base still doesn’t need to become a long-term headache. Marte would bring exactly that.

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Names such as Trevor Rogers, Sonny Gray and Michael King fit the kind of conversation Baltimore has to have this winter, even if each comes with a different price and level of commitment. Rogers offers upside, Gray brings a proven track record, and King would be another arm with recent success who could change the look of the rotation quickly. The question hanging over the Orioles is not whether they need pitching, but whether Elias is willing to stretch beyond his usual comfort zone to get it before the market and the calendar tighten further. [Read more 🡒]