What the Orioles have in Coby Mayo is still a mystery they haven’t solved.
For a franchise that rode a wave of homegrown talent into real expectations, Mayo was supposed to be part of the next chapter. The Orioles had already seen Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson arrive in 2022, then Jordan Westburg follow in 2023 while Kyle Bradish turned in a Cy Young-calber season and the club piled up 101 wins. But the shine has dulled since the second half of 2024, and the uneven development of the organization’s young hitters has been a big reason why.
Mayo sits right in the middle of that uncertainty.
He wasn’t a premium draft pick, either. Baltimore took him in the fourth round in 2020 out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida, though his signing bonus looked more like what a second-rounder would get. Scouts saw real flaws, from an unorthodox swing to a lack of a clear defensive home, and many thought he was headed to college before the Orioles convinced him otherwise.
The bat forced the issue in the minors. Mayo put up a .973 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 and shot up prospect lists.
By the start of 2024, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline all had him in their top 30. The buzz was obvious: Baltimore might have another impact player coming.
The major league version has been harder to pin down.
Mayo got his first taste of the big leagues late in 2024 and it went badly, with a .098/.196/.098 line over 17 games. In 2025, there was at least some progress.
He spent a lot of time at first base, hit .217/.299/.388 with 11 home runs, and finished strong enough to create some real hope. His September line - a .941 OPS - suggested he might have turned a corner.
That momentum has not held in 2026. Mayo has been in the majors all season, mostly at third base while Westburg has been injured, but he hasn’t locked down the job. His overall line sits at .190/.260/.376 with 10 home runs, and manager Craig Albernaz has frequently moved other players onto the hot corner because the production has been so uneven.
The glove hasn’t helped settle things down. Mayo has been worth -4 outs above average, according to Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs has him at -8 defensive runs saved.
Those numbers fit the eye test, too. He was already considered a shaky fit at third, and the Orioles had essentially moved him away from the position in 2025.
Last year, he logged 605.1 major league defensive innings, with 586.1 of them at first base. Then Baltimore signed Pete Alonso in the offseason and kept Mayo anyway, which sent him right back to third. The fit was always awkward, and the only reason he’s there now is because Westburg is hurt and the Orioles don’t have a cleaner option.
Still, Mayo has one clear carrying tool: he hits lefties. Against southpaws this season, among players with at least 60 plate appearances, his 196 wRC+ ranks third in MLB, and his seven homers are tied for sixth. When Baltimore faces a left-hander, Albernaz often bumps Mayo up the order, and that usage has generally paid off.
That kind of production should keep him in the majors. The problem is the rest of the package.
Third base does not look like a long-term answer, maybe not even a short-term one beyond spot duty. The Orioles can keep working on his positioning and footwork, but they already tried the move off the position once, and that happened for a reason.
Right field may be the cleaner path. It’s a spot prospect people have pointed to for a while, and it could make sense for Baltimore’s future as well.
Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras are set to be free agents going into 2027. Tyler O’Neill is under contract through next season, but he’s on pace for a .552 OPS and could be released early.
Heston Kjerstad still needs something to click this year or he may be on his way out. In that mix, Mayo could work as a platoon bat in right alongside left-handed Dylan Beavers, while also picking up some infield, DH, and pinch-hit work.
That kind of move probably won’t happen during the season unless the Orioles drop out of the race entirely. If that happens, they might as well test something new.
What feels less likely now is the old idea that Mayo is a big trade chip who could bring back a major league contributor. He has team control through after the 2031 season, so clubs will still care about the talent.
But they’ve also seen the flaws exposed at the highest level, and any return Baltimore gets would likely be modest.
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