In 2024, the Baltimore Orioles made a bold move by trading two prospects and a comp pick to land Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. It was a savvy deal, as the prospects were either blocked or injury-prone, and the Orioles knew they’d reclaim that comp pick if Burnes left in free agency. Burnes delivered on the mound, posting a 2.92 ERA over 194.1 innings and delivering eight strong innings in his sole playoff start before departing.
Since Burnes' exit, the Orioles have struggled to find a true ace. Last season’s attempt to replace him with a mix of veteran starters fell flat, leading to a disappointing campaign.
Enter Shane Baz, who the Orioles hope can become the ace they’ve been missing. After a rough season, fans and analysts were sure the Orioles would shake things up, with rumors swirling about potential trades for pitchers like Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez.
However, the Orioles’ strategy this offseason looks eerily similar to last year’s. Chris Bassitt steps in for Charlie Morton, and Zach Eflin takes on the Kyle Gibson role.
While there’s reason for optimism with Bassitt and Eflin, the real difference-maker could be Baz.
Baz offers an upside that last year’s acquisitions lacked. A former first-round pick and top prospect, Baz showed flashes of brilliance with the Rays before injuries hampered his progress. Despite a challenging return in 2025, his talent remains evident.
His 2025 performance showed promise, especially on the road where his ERA was a solid 3.86 compared to a 5.90 ERA at home. His consistent xFIP suggests his struggles were more about environment than ability. With four of his five pitches rated above average by Stuff+, and a standout knuckle curve, Baz’s potential is undeniable.
In spring training, Baz is refining his pitch arsenal, focusing on a two-seam fastball to complement his strengths and moving away from a troublesome slider. This adjustment, combined with a pitcher-friendly home park and more distance from injury, sets the stage for a potential breakout.
If Baz can harness his talent and stay healthy, the Orioles might just have found their new number one starter, one who could anchor their rotation for years to come.