The Orioles have been busy this offseason, tackling some major lineup questions with key signings and trades. Bringing in Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward has certainly bolstered the offense.
On the mound, they’ve added Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt, while re-signing Zach Eflin to shore up the rotation. The bullpen got a boost too, with Ryan Helsley joining the ranks and Andrew Kittredge returning.
Yet, a big question remains: Can the Orioles truly contend in 2026?
After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, hopes were high for 2025. Unfortunately, a slew of injuries and some offseason missteps led to a disappointing last-place finish.
This offseason has been more promising, but concerns about pitching depth and a new wave of injuries still linger, casting a shadow over the Orioles' playoff aspirations.
According to FanGraphs, the Orioles have a 51.6% chance of making it to October, ranking sixth among AL teams but only fourth in the competitive AL East. FanDuel’s odds also place them sixth for a postseason spot, with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees ahead.
The optimistic view hinges on their offense. With Alonso and Ward in the mix, and expected improvements from Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, the Orioles could very well lead the league in home runs and boast the best offense in the AL. And that’s before considering the potential of young talents like Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, and Dylan Beavers.
On the flip side, skeptics point to the lack of elite starting pitchers and injuries to Holliday, Basallo, and Jordan Westburg as hurdles. The rotation has depth but relies heavily on healthy seasons from Bradish, Rogers, and Baz to keep pace with the strong rotations in New York, Toronto, and Boston.
Injuries are a concern, but not insurmountable. Holliday is expected back in April, and Basallo’s recent injury doesn’t seem long-term.
Westburg’s UCL injury is a bigger blow, potentially sidelining him for the season, but a strong performance from Coby Mayo could help fill that gap offensively. Still, starting the season with so many injuries could dampen hopes for a postseason return.
While the AL East isn’t as overwhelming with fewer divisional games, the O’s still face a tough climb in baseball’s most competitive division. However, this also gives Baltimore chances to gain ground against their Wild Card rivals.
With the average win total for the last AL Wild Card spot sitting at 87, and most projections placing the Orioles around 86 wins, they’re right on the cusp. This team has the potential to make the playoffs, but whether they can truly emerge as contenders is the real question.
What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.