The Orioles’ offseason is already circling one issue, and it’s the same one that kept hanging over them before the last winter: the rotation.
With 139 days left until the next scheduled Orioles game, the uncertainty around MLB’s owner-imposed lockout is part of the backdrop. But even before that gets sorted out, the pitching picture is what demands attention.
Trevor Rogers was good from about June on through the end of the season, and even with that boost the Orioles still finished 17th in MLB with a 4.24 ERA. That’s the kind of number that sits in the middle of the league and still leaves plenty of room for concern.
The way the rotation looks right now only sharpens that concern. FanGraphs has Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Cade Povich, and Trey Gibson lined up there, and that feels like a reasonable guess.
It also looks like a staff that would need a lot to go right. Unless Povich or Gibson makes a Young-style leap into 2027, the group looks shaky.
And even then, there’s no guarantee Young stays on that upward path.
The Orioles’ needs haven’t really changed. They still have to strengthen the top of the rotation and the bottom of it, too.
Last offseason, the front-end answer was Baz, but his 4.11 ERA didn’t give them the kind of help they were after. The back-end additions were Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin.
Eflin’s season ended in the middle of his first start, which wasn’t on Mike Elias, but it still hurt. Bassitt posted a 4.59 ERA overall, though he was better after coming back from back surgery.
That leaves Elias with another winter of questions. Can he do enough to improve the rotation?
If he can, will it happen before December brings the lockout into the picture? Those are the questions hanging over the month, and if the answer doesn’t come in the affirmative before the lockout hits, that answer will be pretty clear.
Given how this has gone before, there’s plenty of reason for nerves.
The latest batch of Orioles links reflects that same anxiety, because everyone is looking for some kind of rotation solution and nobody has one yet. The possibilities are out there, though they range from exciting to alarming.
Among the items making the rounds, The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka floated five big-swing trade ideas for the Orioles, including Steven Kwan and Reid Detmers. The Baltimore Sun took on five big questions facing the Orioles as free agency begins.
Orioles.com said improving the rotation is “absolutely on the menu,” though that comes with the reminder that the team has not always shown the same level of commitment to long-term pieces, and when it has, the results haven’t always followed. Baltimore Baseball noted the challenge of replacing Trevor Rogers, with the internal fallback plan essentially being “hope Kyle Bradish and/or Shane Baz pitch better than they did in 2026.”
Orioles On The Verge also had a note on Vance Honeycutt, asking whether there are more positives under the hood. For those who are still not ready to let go, that one is for you.
There are also a few Orioles birthdays and anniversaries worth noting. On this day in 1976, Jim Palmer won his second straight AL Cy Young and third overall after going 2.51 ERA over 315 innings.
That was his final Cy Young win, though he would still finish second twice and third once later in his career. In 1997, Davey Johnson was named AL Manager of the Year and also resigned as Orioles manager, which in hindsight marked the beginning of a long stretch of bad Orioles baseball.
The former Orioles born today are pitcher Josh Lucas, who was with the team in 2019, and catcher Javy López, who played for Baltimore from 2004-06.
In Other News...
Orioles Trade Buzz Now Centers On A Young Core Decision
The Orioles trade chatter has shifted from the usual deadline noise to something far more consequential: what Baltimore wants its young core to look like going forward. Industry speculation has put several recognizable names into the conversation, including Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson, both represented by Scott Boras, as teams around the game try to read where the Orioles see their long-term fit. In that same swirl, Jackson Holliday has also surfaced in rumor, a striking twist for a player taken first overall and still viewed as one of the organizations biggest pieces.
What makes the talk around Holliday especially notable is the possibility that Baltimore could be weighing a roster move to make room for Jordan Westburg, which would say a lot about how the club is sorting out its infield and its priorities. None of it amounts to a confirmed trade or an official signal from the team, but it does underline how quickly deadline conversations can move from fringe speculation to questions about the direction of a franchise. For Orioles fans, the intrigue is not just who might be available, but which young players the front office is willing to build around. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Free Agents Are Heading Into A Brutal Winter Reality
Trevor Rogers is shaping up as the most appealing Orioles free agent on the market, and that alone says plenty about how this winter could unfold for Baltimores departing group. With several teams expected to check in, Rogers sits atop a class that includes a mix of familiar names and uncertain cases, from bullpen help to lineup pieces, all of them trying to sort out what kind of demand they can generate after a season shaped by performance, injuries and contract questions.
Luis Robert Jr., Chris Bassitt, Andrew Kittredge, Zach Eflin, Keegan Akin, Ryan Mountcastle and Heston Kjerstad all bring different appeals and different baggage, which is why the rankings from multiple outlets paint such a wide range of outcomes. For the Orioles, the bigger picture is less about one signing and more about how many of these players can actually find the kind of market they might have expected a year ago, and which ones are left waiting as the winter market settles into a tougher reality. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Face A Real Catching Question Around Samuel Basallo
The Orioles are headed into an offseason with a familiar checklist, and the catching spot is one of the trickier items on it. Baltimore wants to strengthen its roster in a few places, including the rotation and outfield, but the backstop situation is drawing extra attention because Samuel Basallo is already under a long-term contract and figures to be part of the future.
Basallos bat and upside make him an important piece, yet the club also wants to keep his workload in check to protect his health. That leaves Baltimore weighing a veteran partner who can handle the defensive side of the job, with free-agent possibilities such as Austin Hedges and Carson Kelly in the mix, along with a possible reunion with James McCann. It is the kind of balancing act that could shape how the Orioles manage the position from day to day next season. [Read more 🡒]