As the Orioles wrap up spring training, the buzz around lineup optimization is heating up. The ideal baseball lineup stacks players with high on-base percentages at the top, paving the way for the sluggers in the middle. While it might not make a huge difference in a single game, over the course of a 162-game season, it could mean an extra win or two-crucial for teams on the playoff bubble.
Manager Craig Albernaz kept things cryptic when asked about his leadoff plans for Opening Day, saying it depends on various factors like the hitter, pitcher, and opposing team. Health is another critical factor, with potential leadoff candidates Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg starting the season on the injured list.
Albernaz seems inclined to rotate his options rather than stick to one player. Gunnar Henderson and Taylor Ward are leading contenders for the spot.
While Henderson has been with Team USA, Ward has been getting reps at the top of the lineup. Ward might not fit the traditional leadoff mold, known more for his power than his on-base skills, but his experience in the role and a solid .259/.326/.456 line with 32 homers in 763 plate appearances show he can handle it.
Plus, his patience at the plate (11.3% walk rate) makes him a viable option.
Ward remains unfazed about where he hits. “Really, it doesn’t matter to me.
I mean, hit me ninth, eighth, I really don’t care,” he said. “I try to treat it like the same thing, just all the same.
I like to keep it simple like that. So wherever Alby wants to put me, I’m good for it.”
Henderson, on the other hand, has thrived in the leadoff role, boasting a .276/.347/.533 line with 42 homers over 789 plate appearances. However, his slugging prowess suggests he might be better utilized with more runners on base, potentially moving him down in the order.
But let’s not carve anything in stone just yet. Lineups are fluid, and much will change throughout the season. Injuries, hot streaks, cold spells, and specific matchups will all play a role in Albernaz’s decisions.
When Holliday and Westburg return, they’ll be in the mix. Holliday led off most frequently last year, and while his numbers weren’t stellar, his youth and potential keep him in consideration. Westburg is versatile, often hitting second or fifth, and could be the spark needed if the lineup stalls.
Colton Cowser, who started last season as the leadoff hitter, might reclaim that role if he regains his strike zone control. Dylan Beavers, with his impressive plate discipline, could also force the Orioles’ hand despite being a rookie.
Then there’s Adley Rutschman. While recent performance suggests a spot lower in the order, his .374 on-base percentage in 2023 hints at leadoff potential if he can return to form.
Ultimately, the Orioles might not have a textbook leadoff hitter, but they have a roster full of capable players. By rotating them strategically, they can maximize their chances of putting runners on base for heavy hitters like Henderson and Pete Alonso-a recipe for success no matter who leads off.