Patrick Reilly is heading into the Arizona Fall League with a chance to put his name back in the conversation.
For an Orioles organization that hasn’t exactly built a spotless recent track record with pitching development, Reilly’s return carries some weight. He was once a top-10 prospect in the system, and now he gets another stage to remind people why he was so highly regarded in the first place. The AFL opens its season on October 3, and Reilly will be part of a Peoria Javelinas group that also includes Orioles prospects Ike Irish, Braxton Bragg, and Brandon Butterworth.
The opportunity matters because Reilly’s development was interrupted in a major way. He was showing signs of becoming one of Baltimore’s better young arms before an elbow injury last year changed everything.
Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2025 season, a brutal pause for any pitcher trying to climb toward the majors. He did make it back this year, though, and he squeezed plenty out of a shortened campaign.
That’s what makes this next step so intriguing. Reilly now gets a chance to make up for lost time and keep building toward a path to Baltimore, with 2027 in view.
The stuff is still there. In 13 starts across three minor league levels this season, Reilly struck out 70 batters in 53 innings.
His 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings topped his career mark of 11.4, a clear sign that he can still miss bats at a high level. He’s got a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s, and his slider and sweeper give him more ways to make that heater play up.
The bigger question has always been command.
Scouts point to a delivery that can be tough to repeat. Reilly’s motion is unique, but that same trait can work against him when he starts drifting out of sync. When that happens, the strike throwing can disappear in a hurry.
That issue has shown up throughout his minor league career. Reilly has a 4.4 walks per nine rate over four seasons, and it was on display when he walked nine in just 5.2 innings in the Florida Complex League as he began his comeback in 2026. But he settled in as the season went along, and September brought a better stretch at Double-A Chesapeake.
His last four starts were especially encouraging. Reilly allowed five earned runs over 21.2 innings, struck out 28 batters, and trimmed the walks down to just one over his final two outings. For a pitcher coming off a long injury layoff, that kind of finish stands out.
The numbers he posts in Arizona won’t tell the whole story, but the Orioles will be watching one thing closely: the strike zone. With their starting rotation still unsettled, there could be openings before long. If Reilly keeps sharpening his command, he has a real chance to put himself back on the map.
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The trick for the Orioles is not simply getting Westburg healthy, but figuring out where he fits when the competition for innings and lineup spots gets crowded. Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Blaze Alexander, Jackson Holliday and Jeremiah Jackson all stand in the mix for 2027, which means Westburgs return could force some uncomfortable decisions about both his defensive home and who stays in the everyday plan. [Read more 🡒]