The Baltimore Orioles aren’t just making noise this offseason-they’re building something that looks ready to roar. After a breakout 2025 campaign that showcased their young core, the front office has doubled down, adding veteran talent to a roster already brimming with promise. And now, with the latest ZiPS projections for 2026 in hand, there’s reason to believe Baltimore is positioning itself as a legitimate AL contender-though one key piece may still be missing.
Let’s start with what we know: the Orioles' foundation is rock solid. Gunnar Henderson leads the way in the ZiPS projections with a projected 5.9 fWAR-a number that places him squarely among the league’s elite. Henderson’s combination of power, plate discipline, and defensive value has made him the face of this youth movement, and 2026 looks like it could be his most complete season yet.
Right behind him is Jordan Westburg, projected at 3.6 fWAR. Westburg’s emergence in 2025 gave the Orioles a dependable presence in the infield, and ZiPS suggests he’s just getting started. Add in Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, and Trevor Rogers-all projected to contribute at least 2 fWAR-and you’ve got the kind of depth that wins divisions.
Now, about Trevor Rogers-his 2.6 fWAR projection might raise eyebrows for fans who saw him flash ace-level stuff last season. But it’s worth noting that ZiPS takes the long view, weighing a player’s full track record.
Rogers’ 2025 season may have been a breakout, but until he strings together back-to-back years of that caliber, the model is going to hedge a bit. That said, if Rogers repeats or improves, he could easily outperform that projection.
On the new arrivals front, the Orioles didn’t just add bodies-they added impact. Pete Alonso is projected at 3.4 fWAR, bringing serious middle-of-the-order power to a lineup that already had plenty of pop. Taylor Ward checks in at 2.3 fWAR, a number that suggests he could slide into a role similar to what Anthony Santander provided in recent years: solid production, defensive versatility, and lineup flexibility.
On the mound, Shane Baz is projected at 2.0 fWAR, but there’s a sense that Baltimore sees even more upside. If Baz stays healthy and continues to develop, he could be the kind of high-octane arm that changes the complexion of a rotation.
Meanwhile, Ryan Helsley is projected to deliver around 1 fWAR out of the bullpen, assuming he hits the projected 57.7 innings. That’s a solid return for a high-leverage reliever, and his presence should help stabilize the late innings.
But here’s the big picture: ZiPS likes this team. The offense is deep, the bullpen is strong, and the roster is filled with players entering or already in their prime.
Still, there’s one glaring need-an ace. As Dan Szymborski puts it, the Orioles “still need a dude.”
Whether you call it an ace, a frontline starter, or a “Big Hoss,” the message is clear: Baltimore is one high-end arm away from being a complete team.
Compared to the rest of the AL East, ZiPS places the Orioles in the same tier as the Yankees, with a slight edge going to the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That’s not exactly a surprise-the division is a gauntlet-but it underscores just how competitive the Orioles already are.
And if they land that top-tier starter before Opening Day? They might just enter 2026 as one of the most balanced teams in baseball.
For now, Baltimore fans have every reason to be excited. The numbers say this team is ready to contend. The only question left is whether the front office makes one more move to push them over the top.