One number should be front and center for Orioles fans heading into the offseason: payroll. It’s become a bigger part of the conversation since David Rubenstein took over, and the spending has climbed even though Baltimore still hasn’t reached the playoffs under his watch.
Spotrac has the Orioles’ 2027 luxury tax payroll at $186.6 million right now, based on club options being removed and arbitration estimates being added in. That figure comes after a steady rise over the last three seasons: $131.0 million in 2024, $175.9 million in 2025, and $217.6 million in 2026.
That 2027 number is only a snapshot, though. The roster is going to look different by the time the official 2026-27 offseason gets going, and plenty of those dollars are spread across players at every position group.
At catcher, Baltimore sits at $10.375 million. Samuel Basallo accounts for most of that with an AAV of $8.375 million on his extension, even though his actual 2027 salary is only $1.675 million. Carlos Narvaez and Yohel Pozo are both pre-arbitration players and would be making around a million apiece if they stay on the roster all season.
First base is a $32 million line item, almost entirely because of Pete Alonso’s contract. His AAV is $31 million over five years, and while that was higher than his actual $21 million salary in 2026, it’s $2.5 million lower than his $33.5 million salary for the remaining five seasons.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand adds the other million as a pre-arb player. Ryan Mountcastle’s $7.5 million club option is not included because it is highly unlikely to be picked up.
Second base comes in at $3 million. That total includes Jackson Holliday and Jeremiah Jackson, both pre-arb and projected at $1 million, plus Jordan Westburg, who is headed into his first arbitration year. Since he missed the entire season, Spotrac projects him at his previous salary, though MLB Trade Rumors has him at $1.5 million.
At third base, the Orioles have just one player listed: Coby Mayo. He’s still pre-arb, so his number is $1 million.
Shortstop totals $12.5 million, with Gunnar Henderson doing the heavy lifting as he enters his second season of arbitration. Spotrac has him at $10.5 million, while MLBTR projects $14.1 million. Blaze Alexander and Jose Barrero, both pre-arb, account for the remaining $2 million.
The outfield checks in at $29 million. Tyler O’Neill makes up more than half of that with a $16.5 million AAV in the final year of his three-year, $49.5 million deal.
Colton Cowser is entering his first arbitration season with a projected $3 million salary, while Leody Taveres is in his final arbitration year at a projected $4.5 million. Reed Trimble, Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Beavers, Rece Hinds, and Christian Franklin combine for the other $5 million.
Luis Robert Jr.’s $20 million club option is not listed because it is highly unlikely to be exercised.
Starting pitchers are currently projected at $34.6 million, and that number already looks hefty. Kyle Bradish’s AAV is $18 million and Shane Baz’s is $13.6 million after both signed long-term extensions.
Trey Gibson, Brandon Young, and Cade Povich are also in the mix as pre-arb arms. Zach Eflin’s $25 million mutual option is not included, and if it somehow gets picked up, this category would jump sharply, even though mutual options are rarely exercised.
The bullpen is projected at $33 million. Ryan Helsley is the biggest piece there, with a $14.0 million player option for 2027 that he will likely take after missing most of the season.
Yennier Cano carries a $3.75 million AAV on his extension, which is $1 million above his 2027 salary. Baltimore also has three arbitration-eligible relievers in Felix Bautista, Albert Suarez, and Codi Heuer.
Spotrac projects Bautista at $2.25 million, with MLBTR at $2.4 million, while Suarez and Heuer are both at $1 million, or $1.1 million apiece according to MLBTR. Dietrich Enns and his $3.5 million club option are not included.
Of course, not everyone on this list is guaranteed to stay. Some arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players could be non-tendered, and any outside additions would push the total higher. But as a starting point, this gives Baltimore a workable picture.
If Rubenstein keeps the payroll near last season’s $217 million level, the Orioles could have $20 million to $30 million to spend in free agency. And if he goes beyond that, the room only gets bigger. The real luxury tax number - or hard cap - will be defined by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement expected this offseason, hopefully.
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