The Orioles have spent most of this season living in that frustrating space between promise and proof. For long stretches, the offense looked like it might be the thing that carried them, then it disappeared again. But after a burst in Tampa Bay, they’re at least giving people a reason to keep paying attention as they head back home for the Yankees and Rays.
What changed first is the lineup construction. With Taylor Ward gone, manager Craig Albernaz has had more freedom to shuffle his hitters around, and that has opened the door for Jackson Holliday to move up in the order while Gunnar Henderson has sometimes slid down, with good results. The hottest bats are getting the most chances now, and the Orioles are finally behaving like a team that knows it needs every productive at-bat it can get.
Since their 10-run outburst Aug. 9 in Texas, Baltimore has not scored fewer than four runs in any game. Over that eight-game stretch, the Orioles have put up 51 runs, or 6.3 per game, with a team on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .872.
Pete Alonso has been a star in that span, but he’s not the whole story. Eight Orioles hitters have a wRC+ of at least 100, and Holliday, the next-best name on that list, has delivered multiple big hits.
That kind of run is not new for this club. The Orioles’ best stretches this season have usually lined up with the offense looking more like the version people expected before Opening Day.
After their last trip through Tropicana Field, where the Rays swept them and the season felt like it was teetering, Baltimore responded by winning 10 of 14 while scoring 86 runs, or 6.1 per game, with a collective OPS of .791. Their season-long numbers are much more ordinary: 4.6 runs per game and a .720 OPS.
There was another hot spell around the All-Star break, too. When the Orioles won 10 of 13 to start July, they were a little quieter at the plate - 4.7 runs per game and a .741 OPS - but the pitching was good enough to carry them, allowing more than three runs only three times in that stretch.
The catch is that these bursts keep fading. Baltimore gets rolling, then slips back into inconsistency. That unevenness was part of the conversation after a rough weekend against the Phillies earlier this month, and Mike Elias pointed to it as one reason the deadline unfolded the way it did.
Still, there are some real signs under the hood. The Orioles’ 10.2% walk rate leads the American League, even if that could take a hit without Ward and Adley Rutschman.
They also own the league’s best hard-hit rate at 42.9%. In theory, that should create plenty of damage.
In practice, their team expected slugging percentage is .415, which is 16 points better than their actual .399 mark.
Maybe that gap is starting to close. In this current eight-game surge, their actual slugging percentage is .515 and their expected slugging is .493. For once, the results are outpacing the projections.
The Orioles have long bet on the same formula: hit the ball hard, work good at-bats, and trust the offense to come around. That idea has been easy to dismiss at times this year, but some of the old complaints are less loud now, too.
Their issues against left-handed pitching have not vanished, yet the team actually has a slightly better OPS against lefties (.723) than righties (.719). And the old criticism about situational hitting looks a little softer as well.
Baltimore is hitting .252 with runners in scoring position, which is not eye-popping, but the .344 on-base percentage in those spots - helped by an 11.8% walk rate - is 10th-best in baseball. Their .772 OPS with runners in scoring position ranks seventh.
The larger issue is still the same one that has hovered over them all season: can they do it long enough to matter? Alonso is not going to stay this hot forever, though his .912 OPS since the beginning of May makes him a dependable presence.
Beyond him, the Orioles need Tyler O’Neill and Coby Mayo to keep punishing left-handed pitching, Colton Cowser to keep doing damage against righties, and Holliday to remain the best version of himself since the All-Star break. Once they’re healthy, Samuel Basallo and Blaze Alexander will need to return strong, too.
If that all comes together, Baltimore can score enough to survive the nights when the starters are off or the defense gives away extra outs and gets burned for it. That’s the idea, anyway. The problem is that it has been the idea for more than four months, and the Orioles are still sitting a few games below .500, stuck in that familiar range of two to five games under.
Even so, the standings around them are messy enough that they are not out of it. And now that the bats are waking up again, they’re still a team worth watching. There are worse places to be.
In Other News...
Orioles Just Reopened The Deadline Wound Fans Know Too Well
The Orioles spent years trying to build around Adley Rutschman, so moving on from him lands like the kind of deadline decision Baltimore fans know can change a franchises direction in a hurry. In return, the front office added Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon and Enddy Azocar, three prospects now slotted among the organizations best minor league arms, a sign the club is still betting heavily on the future even while dealing away a player who once symbolized the present.
For Orioles followers, the uneasy part is familiar. The last time Baltimore turned a deadline into a prospect haul at this scale, the rebuild moved in a direction that looked promising on paper but did not deliver much major league payoff from the return. The Orioles are again asking fans to trust that this reset will produce more than just another stack of names, and the answer to that question will take time to come into focus. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Waste Shane Baz Gem As Playoff Pressure Keeps Rising
Shane Baz gave the Orioles exactly the kind of start they needed at Camden Yards, carving through the Yankees for 6 1/3 innings and striking out a season-high 10. Baltimore could never turn that effort into enough offense, though, and a tense game stayed tight until the late innings when the Yankees broke through for a 3-1 win.
Trent Grisham delivered the swing that changed everything with a tie-breaking two-run single in the seventh off Josh Walker, and that hit left Baltimore staring at another missed chance in a race where every game seems to matter more. Even with Baz doing his part, the Orioles could not cash in on the momentum he created, and the loss only adds to the pressure as the margin for error keeps shrinking. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Suddenly Have A Tough Infield Decision Waiting For Blaze Alexander
Blaze Alexanders absence has quietly turned into one of the Orioles more interesting roster puzzles. The utility man went down after being hit by a pitch in July with a left hand fracture, and since then Christian Encarnacion-Strand has handled third base and given the club a credible option there. For a team that values flexibility, that kind of internal competition can be helpful right up until it forces a harder conversation about playing time.
Alexanders rehab has progressed well enough that he still expects to be back before long, which only sharpens the issue. When he is ready, the Orioles will have to decide whether to ease him back into the same role he held before the injury or keep riding with the hot hand at third and sort out the rest of the alignment later. In the meantime, the depth chart is doing exactly what good depth charts do, which is making life a little more complicated for everyone above it. [Read more 🡒]