Tyler Wells pitched his way into the kind of trade value the Orioles couldn’t ignore.
For a while, Baltimore seemed torn on what Wells was supposed to be. Was he a starter for a rotation that might matter?
A bullpen weapon who could just let it eat? The answer kept changing, and Tommy John surgery only stretched out the uncertainty.
But by the time 2026 rolled around, the Orioles had finally settled on Wells as a reliever. He rewarded that decision with such a strong season that when deadline time came, he drew enough attention that the Orioles “had to” trade him.
Of course, they didn’t literally have to move him. They could have kept him, just as they could have held onto Adley Rutschman or Dean Kremer.
If Baltimore believed Wells could still be part of the 2027 bullpen, there was a path to keeping him. Instead, Mike Elias chose to bring back Michael Forret, one of the prospects he had sent to the Rays in the Shane Baz deal.
Wells, the 6’8” right-hander, later pitched in the World Series for his new club.
The interest made sense. Wells was getting better as the season went on, and by July he was right in the conversation as the Orioles closer, or at least one of them.
He appeared in 14 games that month, notched four saves and a win, and worked multiple innings more than once. His July ERA sat at 1.10.
That kind of performance tends to travel well at the deadline, especially when a team can control a reliever for another season at a relatively modest price. Wells was projected around $4 million for 2027, and that made him the sort of arm contenders would chase. Elias clearly decided it was time to sell high on a relief pitcher who could be volatile, and he got back a pitcher who was at Triple-A and could be close to helping the big-league club.
Volatility has always been part of Wells’s profile because he’s such an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Even before this season, his career ground-ball rate sat around 33%, well below the low-40s range you’d expect from an average pitcher.
For comparison, Zack Britton’s ground-ball rate in his peak 2016 season with the Orioles was exactly 80%. That’s the kind of profile that keeps balls in the dirt and homers off the board.
Wells went even further in 2026, finishing with a 26.5% ground-ball rate. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings, that placed him literally in the bottom 5 in the league.
For someone who had already shown homer issues, that’s a dangerous place to live. There’s not much room for error when the ball is constantly in the air.
And yet Wells mostly avoided the damage. Only 8% of the fly balls he allowed turned into home runs, nearly a third below the league average of about 11%. That kind of number usually comes with some luck attached, and it probably won’t hold up in 2027.
Still, there was plenty of real pitching behind the results. His Statcast page for 2026 was loaded with red: he got hitters to chase, he missed bats, he limited walks, and he kept contact from getting too loud.
Those are the ingredients that help a pitcher survive even when the home run math looks shaky. And if anyone is going to get the best chance to keep that going, it might be the Rays.
Across his time with both Baltimore and Tampa Bay, Wells posted a 2.38 ERA. That’s elite territory for a reliever.
But the run prevention came with some warning signs underneath. His Fielding Independent Pitching was 3.38, still solid but not nearly as shiny.
His xFIP, which normalizes home run rate, climbed to 4.03. Stretch that out over a season, and you’re looking at something closer to Anthony Nunez’s 2026 line than an impact late-inning weapon.
So what is Wells going to be in 2027? If he loses even a little bit of the edge as he heads into his age-32 season, things could turn quickly.
If he repeats this, Elias could wind up looking foolish. That wouldn’t be new, even if the discussion is limited to Orioles relievers traded to the Rays.
Or maybe both sides walk away happy. Maybe Forret turns into a useful pitcher for Baltimore, perhaps as soon as next year, and Wells keeps helping Tampa Bay. Those trades do happen.
In Other News...
Orioles Got A Mixed Prospect Showing At The Perfect Time
The Arizona Fall League Fall Star Game offered a useful snapshot of where a few Orioles prospects stand right now, with four members of the organization taking part for Peoria. Pitchers Braxton Bragg and Patrick Reilly were both in the mix, along with outfielders Vance Honeycutt and Ike Irish, giving Baltimore a chance to see some of its better young talent on a stage built for evaluation. The Javelinas are tied for first in the AFL standings, so the setting has been as competitive as it gets for a developmental league showcase.
Reilly had a rough outing with his control in his start, while Bragg looked sharp in relief, a contrast that fits the uneven but revealing nature of fall ball. Honeycutt finished 0-for-2 with two strikeouts and a walk, while Irish helped drive in a run with a single and also drew a walk, leaving the Orioles with a mixed but timely read on a group that could matter down the road. With the offseason still quiet and General Manager meetings approaching, Baltimores front office will soon have plenty to sort through, including where these young players fit into the bigger picture. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Have An Obvious Second Base Question They Can't Ignore
Second base has become one of the Orioles clearest offseason questions, and Brandon Lowe fits the conversation in a way few available options do. A Maryland native who played college ball at the University of Maryland, Lowe would bring a familiar local tie along with the kind of left-handed pop Baltimore has long valued in the middle of the lineup. His career has been built mostly with the Rays, with a stop in Pittsburgh, and he has paired that offensive track record with better work in the field in recent seasons.
Baltimores interest is easy to understand because the current answer has not held up, with Jackson Holliday struggling in 2026 and leaving the position unsettled. Lowe is not just a name on a free-agent board, either, since his recent production suggests he could help the Orioles in more than one way if they decide to make a move. The question now is whether Baltimore sees him as a fit worth pursuing, or whether the front office chooses to keep searching for a longer-term solution. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Have A Clear Trade Path To Fix Two Roster Problems
The Orioles are sitting on a familiar kind of roster problem, the kind good organizations eventually have to sort through. Baltimore has more infield talent than it can comfortably fit, and that surplus could give Mike Elias some real leverage as he looks for ways to shore up other areas of the roster. The Miami Marlins, meanwhile, are said to be shopping for help at corner infield and outfield, which gives the two clubs a natural match on paper.
For Baltimore, the appeal is obvious: turn an area of depth into a chance to address a separate need, especially on the pitching side. Elias has worked with Miami before, and that history only adds to the sense that this is a path worth watching as the trade market develops. Names like Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez fit the kind of upside the Orioles might chase, even if nothing has moved beyond the speculative stage so far. [Read more 🡒]