A trade nobody expected out of Boston on Saturday night may have quietly changed the way the Orioles should view Coby Mayo.
The Red Sox sent rookie starter Connelly Early to the Nationals for Curtis Mead, a deal that landed with a thud because of how much value Washington appeared to get back. Mead has been in the middle of a breakout season, but even so, the return still turned heads. For Baltimore, the bigger lesson is that right-handed bats are going to matter at this deadline, and that could give Mayo a market the Orioles might not have assumed was there.
On paper, Mead’s numbers are stronger than Mayo’s across the board. He’s hitting for a better average, reaching base more often and slugging 100 points higher. That’s exactly why the trade looked so surprising.
But the real reason Mayo suddenly looks more interesting is the kind of player contenders chase in July. Teams are hunting for right-handed bats because they want answers for the left-handed arms they’ll run into in October. Those platoon hitters who can punish lefties have become harder to find, and Mayo fits that job description better than almost anyone.
This season, Mayo has been one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching. His 193 wRC+ against lefties is the third highest in the league, trailing only Andrew Vaughn and Paul Goldschmidt. Both of those hitters are on contenders and won’t be moved at this deadline.
If a contender wants a right-handed power bat to handle lefties, Mayo is as strong a target as there is.
He also brings more than the bat. Compared with Mead, Mayo is a better defender at both third base and first base, and Mead’s glove didn’t stop him from having trade value.
Mayo’s contract situation only adds to the appeal. He has multiple years of control left and is making the rookie minimum this season, which makes him cheap now and potentially useful beyond this year.
That leaves Baltimore with a tricky question: if Mayo is so useful against lefties, why not keep him? The Orioles might do exactly that. But there are reasons to consider moving him anyway.
The first is simple enough: there may not be a future for him in Baltimore. Once the Orioles signed Pete Alonso, Mayo’s path at first base was blocked.
Jordan Westburg’s injury gave Baltimore a chance to try Mayo at third, but it has become clear that he is not a viable major league first baseman. His long-term home is first base, and that spot is spoken for in Baltimore for at least the next four and a half seasons.
The second reason is more about the roster as a whole. The Orioles have too many players who resemble Mayo: young former top prospects who are bat-first, struggling at the plate and not helping enough defensively.
Too many games have featured the same kind of damage, with defensive mistakes or ugly at-bats from that group. If Baltimore wants to stop handing away games, it needs more complete players, not more projects.
So if the market really is paying up for right-handed power, Mayo could be one of the Orioles’ better trade chips. It probably won’t bring back a player as good as Connelly Early. But if another team comes calling with a strong offer, Baltimore should be ready to listen, even while it still has playoff hopes of its own.
In Other News...
Orioles Keep Finding New Ways To Deepen Fan Frustration
The Orioles have spent much of this season piling frustration on top of frustration, and the latest layer has come from the kind of sloppiness that tends to haunt a team even when the talent is still visible. Baltimore has already allowed more unearned runs than anyone in baseball, and a string of injuries has only made the day-to-day picture messier, leaving the club to keep patching holes while trying to stay in the race.
There is still a path back, at least on paper, with FanGraphs giving the Orioles a 21.3 percent shot at the postseason, but the margin for error is shrinking fast. The front office under Mike Elias is expected to stay the course through the season, which means the pressure stays squarely on the roster to clean up the fundamentals and start turning close games their way instead of adding to a one-run record that has become a painful part of the story. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fans Have Reached Their Limit With Taylor Ward
Taylor Wards first weeks in Baltimore have only sharpened the frustration around a trade that was supposed to give the Orioles a more stable middle-of-the-order presence. Instead, the deal has become a reminder that both sides have reasons to second-guess it, with Grayson Rodriguez still battling injury issues and Ward unable to provide the kind of production or defensive reliability the club expected when it brought him in.
The problem for the Orioles is not just that Ward has struggled, but that the usage around him has made the fit even harder to ignore. He keeps showing up high in the lineup despite the lack of results, and the patience that once came with the move now looks more like stubbornness, especially with other options waiting for a chance to play left field and give the lineup a different look. [Read more 🡒]