The Orioles asked Trey Gibson to do a hard job before he was ready, and the results showed it.
Baltimore’s top pitching prospect was pushed into the rotation because injuries piled up, and he wound up making seven starts and one relief appearance before the club optioned him back down to clear a spot for Dean Kremer. For Orioles fans, that first look at Gibson was rough enough to raise real questions about what comes next for a pitcher who arrived with plenty of buzz.
The matchup list did him no favors. Gibson’s first two starts came against the Yankees and Rays, the two teams that have been far and away the best in the AL, and he also drew the Dodgers during that stretch.
Even with that difficult run of opponents, the line was ugly: a 7.36 ERA, a 6.79 xERA and a 6.41 FIP. He also allowed nearly a 50% hard-hit rate and walked 15.5% of the hitters he faced, a combination that is hard to survive for long.
That said, the bigger concern isn’t just what happened in the majors. It’s what has happened since Gibson moved up from Double-A.
His 2025 Double-A numbers are what put him on the map as a top 100 prospect. In 10 starts there, he posted a 1.55 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate.
He was missing bats, getting ground balls and looking like a pitcher who could move quickly. That success made it easier for people to dismiss his 7.98 ERA at Triple-A as the usual growing pains that come with a promotion.
At Triple-A this season, though, the picture has flattened out. Gibson has a solid 3.55 ERA and he’s still getting plenty of ground balls, but the strikeout rate has dropped well below that Double-A peak and the walks have climbed. Once he reached the majors, those issues only got worse, and the poor results followed.
The command is the heart of the problem. Gibson works with a deep pitch mix, and stuff+ grades his slider as excellent, but the rest of his arsenal sits around average or below.
That can work for a starter, but only if the pitcher can place those pitches where they need to go. Since arriving at Triple-A, Gibson hasn’t done that consistently.
Average stuff without sharp command is a tough formula.
There is still a path forward here. Being forced into the majors early gave Gibson experience he can actually use, and command is the kind of skill that can improve with reps.
His command dropped after he went from the Double-A minor league ball to the Triple-A major league ball, and he has just 100.1 competitive innings with the new ball. If he spends the next few months figuring out what’s behind the command problems and makes real progress, he could still be in the mix for an opening-day rotation job next year.
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