Trevor Rogers looks headed for the open market after the Baltimore Orioles extended him a qualifying offer, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network wrote on X that the 28-year-old left-hander is “almost certain” to turn it down.
That makes sense given the kind of season Rogers just put together. He made 30 starts for Baltimore in 2026, logged a career-high 169.2 innings, and turned in a 4.03 ERA.
On the surface, that number is ordinary. Dig a little deeper, though, and the picture gets a lot more interesting.
Rogers posted a 3.45 FIP, a sign that his run prevention could have looked better with stronger defense behind him. His fastball also ticked up, with his average velocity climbing to 93.8 from 92.9 the year before.
He paired that with sharp command, issuing just 2.07 walks per nine innings, while striking out 157 batters over those 30 starts. By season’s end, he had produced 4.0 fWAR.
The biggest question around Rogers has never been talent. It’s been durability. He made only 18 starts in 2025 after a knee injury wiped out the first two months of that season, and he also missed most of 2023 with a biceps strain.
Even with that injury history, the expectation is that Rogers will land a long-term deal rather than settle for the one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer. ESPN projects him to sign a four-year, $76 million contract, a much bigger commitment than a one-year return to Baltimore.
In Other News...
Orioles Just Got A Telling Sign About Their Pitching Priorities
Emilio Pagns decision to leave Cincinnati for a one-year, $11 million deal with the Detroit Tigers is the latest reminder that the bullpen market is moving quickly, and clubs looking for experienced relief help have to be ready to act. For the Orioles, that matters because their offseason priorities have already been shaped by how they want to support a pitching staff that has to keep getting deeper and more reliable.
Baltimore also brought back Mike Shildt as upper-level coordinator of instruction, likely on a year-to-year basis, a move that underscores how much the organization still values continuity in its pitching development pipeline. It is the kind of behind-the-scenes decision that can say as much about a teams immediate plans as any free-agent signing, even if the full picture of how the Orioles will attack the market is still coming into focus. [Read more 🡒]
Pete Alonso Gave The Orioles Exactly What They Needed Except This
Pete Alonsos first season in Baltimore gave the Orioles plenty to feel good about, and the recognition has followed. He was named to the 2026 All-MLB First Team for the second time, a nod that fits with the kind of year he put together at the plate. Alonso also led the American League in home runs and RBIs, and he was a finalist for the leagues Silver Slugger Award, a reminder that his impact went well beyond the usual power-hitting reputation.
For the Orioles, there was even more to like because Alonsos production translated into immediate value in a lineup that needed it. He ended up winning Baltimores Most Valuable Oriole Award after his first season with the club, which says plenty about how quickly he became central to the teams identity. The only lingering question now is how much of that success can carry over as the Orioles look to build on it from here. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Offseason Plan Is Starting To Create A Real Roster Debate
At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Mike Elias and Jared Banner gave Orioles fans a clearer picture of how the offseason is shaping up, and it starts with continuity. Mike Shildt is set to return as upper-level coordinator of instruction, while the major league coaching staff is expected to stay together unless someone else comes calling. Elias also said the club may use spring training to give some infielders looks in the outfield, a sign the roster could still be flexible even if the front office is leaning toward keeping its core intact.
The bigger takeaway is that Baltimore does not sound eager to move any of its key pieces, even as Elias acknowledged the bullpen remains a concern. He also addressed the recovery timelines for Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday, two names that matter to the Orioles infield picture and the clubs broader planning. With the staff largely settled and the trade market sounding quiet, the real debate now is how much room there is for internal shuffling before spring training answers some of the questions. [Read more 🡒]