A year after the Orioles dealt Bryan Baker, the move looks a lot different than it did on July 11.
Baker said at All-Star media availability that the trade caught him completely off guard. He had expected to pitch in a doubleheader against the Mets, then suddenly found himself headed to Boston instead.
"That day was a pretty crazy one. I thought I was going to be pitching in a doubleheader against the Mets that day, but then I was packing up everything I had and going to Boston and throwing there. So that was crazy"
The timing made the deal unusual from the start. The Orioles and Rays completed it well before the deadline, even though trades like this usually wait until clubs are closer to making final decisions. Baltimore was having a rough season, but nobody around the clubhouse was bracing for a move on July 11.
The Rays wanted Baker because they were willing to trade a draft pick for him, and waiting until the deadline would have meant the draft was already gone. Baltimore could either hope to like whoever it took with the 37th pick or get the deal done early. They chose to move quickly.
This was also just the latest example of Baltimore and Tampa Bay doing business with each other. Over the last three seasons, the two division rivals have completed three trades, swapping 10 players and two draft picks.
The real question now is whether the Orioles gave up too much. At the time, Baker looked like a useful but movable reliever, and the draft pick return made sense. But with Baker thriving in Tampa Bay, and with the player Baltimore took at 37th later sent back to the Rays in the Shane Baz trade, the whole sequence looks a lot worse in hindsight.
From Baltimore’s side, there was a logic to the larger chain of moves. If you view the Baker and Shane Baz deals as one extended transaction, the idea was simple enough: trade a controllable reliever and some prospect value for a young, controllable starter who could eventually be extended. On paper, that is a sound process.
The problem is that Baltimore underestimated Baker. The Orioles did not realize he could become what he is now in Tampa Bay. They knew he had the ability to be a sub-2 ERA closer with elite expected stats and elite counting stats, but they would have preferred to keep him and use other pieces to finish the Shane Baz deal.
In the end, the version of Baker Baltimore traded away was worth less than the 37th pick. The version Tampa Bay is getting this season is worth far more.
The Orioles surprised Baker with the trade. Baker has answered by surprising them back, and doing it as one of the best relievers in baseball.
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