Three Cold Streaks the Orioles Must Break in 2026 to Heat Up Their Playoff Hopes
Right now, Maryland is locked in a deep freeze-snow-covered streets, icy sidewalks, and a chill that just won’t quit. But for Orioles fans, the cold goes beyond the weather.
The last year and a half has felt like a deep winter for Baltimore baseball, with the team sliding from American League contenders to the bottom of the AL East. The bats went quiet, the pitching stumbled, and the energy that once filled Camden Yards turned into frustration.
But just like the weather, things can change. And with the 2026 season on the horizon, there’s a reason for optimism in Birdland.
Projections have the Orioles boasting the best offense in the American League. Pete Alonso is now in orange and black, ready to bring the thunder.
Taylor Ward adds another layer of pop. And there’s still time to bolster the rotation before Opening Day.
Still, if the Orioles want to turn the page and make a serious October run, they’ll need more than just new faces. They’ll need to thaw out from some lingering cold spells that have held them back. Here are three key slumps Baltimore must break to make 2026 a success.
1. Adley Rutschman’s Injury-Plagued Slide
When Adley Rutschman is healthy and rolling, the Orioles are a different team. From his debut in May 2022 through mid-2024, he was one of the best catchers in the game-hitting .274 with an OPS north of .800 while anchoring the defense behind the plate. During that stretch, the O’s posted a .601 winning percentage, the kind of pace that screams division titles and deep playoff runs.
But things took a turn in late June 2024. In a series opener against the Rangers, Rutschman fouled a ball off his hand.
He stayed off the injured list, but it was clear something wasn’t right. From July through the end of the season, his offensive production cratered-his batting average dropped by 100 points, and his OPS took a 250-point hit.
The Orioles, once riding high, stumbled into the postseason and were swept out yet again.
Hoping for a rebound, Rutschman came into 2025 looking leaner, stronger, and locked in. He dominated spring training and seemed ready to return to All-Star form.
But the injury bug struck again. Oblique issues limited him to just 90 games, and his offensive numbers continued to dip.
Now entering his age-28 season, Rutschman is still the heartbeat of this team. If the Orioles are going to snap out of their funk and get back to October, they need their catcher healthy and producing like the All-Star he was.
The good news? Help has arrived.
With Alonso and Ward in the lineup, Rutschman no longer has to shoulder the power burden alone. Over the past two seasons, he often looked like he was pressing-swinging for the fences instead of sticking to the patient, balanced approach that made him elite. With legit sluggers around him, Rutschman can get back to doing what he does best: working counts, spraying the ball to all fields, and being a steady force in the middle of the order.
2. Clutch Hitting with Runners in Scoring Position
The long ball has always been part of Baltimore’s DNA. But when the game tightens up, you’ve got to be able to get a run home with a single up the middle. And last year, the Orioles just couldn’t do that.
Baltimore hit a paltry .234 with runners in scoring position-only the White Sox, Rockies, and Pirates were worse. That’s not the kind of company you want to keep.
The strikeout rate didn’t help either: 25% of the time, Orioles hitters went down swinging in big spots. Only Colorado and the Angels struck out more in those situations.
If the O’s want to play meaningful baseball in October, that has to change. Of the 12 playoff teams last year, only the Mariners hit under .250 with runners in scoring position-and Seattle’s pitching staff is built to survive low-scoring games. The Orioles don’t have that kind of rotation depth (yet), so they’ll need to win with offense.
Enter Pete Alonso. The five-time All-Star hit .309 with a 1.035 OPS last season when runners were in scoring position.
That’s the kind of bat you want up in a big moment. Among returning Orioles, only Gunnar Henderson (.342) and Jordan Westburg (.358) hit over .300 in those spots.
Everyone else? .221 or worse. Ward’s .246 average with RISP wasn’t elite, but it’s still an upgrade.
With Alonso anchoring the middle of the order, the Orioles should be able to cash in more often when they get runners to second and third. That alone could swing several games in a tight AL East race.
3. The 10-Game Playoff Losing Streak
Let’s be real-just making the playoffs isn’t enough anymore. Not for this team. Not for this fanbase.
The Orioles haven’t won a playoff game since the 2014 ALDS clincher over Detroit. That was over a decade ago.
Back then, Gunnar Henderson was in middle school, Adley Rutschman was a high school sophomore, and Pete Alonso was still mashing baseballs in college. Since then?
Ten straight postseason losses.
And yet, there’s belief that 2026 could be different. Fangraphs currently gives the O’s a 55% chance to make the playoffs-the sixth-best odds in the American League. If they land another arm like Framber Valdez or Zac Gallen, those odds only improve.
If they do get back to October, it would mark the first time since 1974 that the Orioles have made the playoffs three times in four years. That’s a milestone worth celebrating-but it won’t mean much if the playoff losing streak continues.
Manager Craig Albernaz and his staff have their work cut out for them. The AL East is no joke, and the road to October is always bumpy.
But the biggest hurdle isn’t just getting there. It’s winning when it counts.
The Bottom Line
The Orioles have the talent. They have the pieces.
And they’ve had enough of the cold. If Rutschman can stay healthy, if the bats come alive with runners on, and if they can finally snap that postseason drought, 2026 could be the year Birdland thaws out-and heats up.