The 2026 MLB season is off to a stellar start for the Baltimore Orioles. They kicked things off with a narrow victory over the Minnesota Twins on Opening Day, edging them out 2-1.
The star of the show was lefty Trevor Rogers, who delivered seven shutout innings, proving last year's performance was no fluke. Just a day later, the Orioles made headlines by securing right-hander Shane Baz with a five-year extension worth $68 million, locking in two of his free-agent years.
Baz was all smiles at Saturday’s press conference, calling the decision to sign long-term a "no-brainer." His enthusiasm for staying in Baltimore was clear: "It's just such a great place to be. I was probably a little bit surprised about it, but it was just too good of an opportunity."
This move follows another significant signing by the Orioles last August when they inked top prospect and catcher Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67 million deal. It seems the Orioles are keen on securing their young talent, and shortstop Gunnar Henderson might be next in line.
Henderson is open to discussions, saying, "Any time they want to come my way, I'm open ears. But my first priority right now is to win ballgames and do whatever I can to bring a championship to the Orioles."
Henderson, at 24, is three years away from free agency and has emerged as a homegrown star for the Orioles. While other prospects like Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday have yet to fully break through, Henderson has cemented his place as a key player.
Looking at the landscape of MLB contracts, few players with Henderson's service time have secured long-term deals. Here’s a snapshot of some notable contracts for players three years from free agency:
- Austin Riley, Braves: 10 years, $212M
- Cal Raleigh, Mariners: 6 years, $105M
- Wil Myers, Padres: 6 years, $83M
- Jake Cronenworth, Padres: 7 years, $80M
- Sean Murphy, Braves: 6 years, $73M
While the Orioles would likely jump at offering Henderson a deal similar to Raleigh's, the situation is more complex. Henderson, a client of Scott Boras, might be steered towards free agency, where the potential earnings are significant. However, it’s not unheard of for Boras clients to sign extensions, though it often requires top-of-the-market dollars.
Let’s imagine a potential extension for Henderson: starting with $8.5 million this year, moving to $15 million and $20 million in the following arbitration years, and then $35 million annually from 2029-39. This would total a whopping 13 years and $420 million, placing him among the top earners in the league.
Such a deal would make history as one of the largest contracts ever, possibly surpassing Mike Trout's $426.5 million deal with a signing bonus or option buyout. While Henderson might not reach free agency as young as some other superstars, the Orioles might need to make a substantial offer to keep him from testing the market.
The longer the Orioles wait, the tougher it might be to secure Henderson. As he edges closer to free agency and earns more through arbitration, betting on himself becomes less risky. With upcoming free agent markets looking thin, Henderson could be the most sought-after position player since Juan Soto.
The Orioles seem poised for more extensions, as owner David Rubenstein hinted during Baz's press conference. While Henderson’s situation is complicated by the Boras factor, players like Rogers and potentially Rutschman might see deals come their way. The Orioles are clearly building for the future, and fans have every reason to be excited.