The Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2026 is official, and two of the game’s most dynamic outfielders from the last few decades are finally headed to Cooperstown. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones both received the necessary 75% of the vote from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, cementing their legacies among the all-time greats.
But for Orioles fans, it’s another year of watching the Hall of Fame festivities from the sidelines. There’s still no Baltimore connection among the inductees, and the wait for the next one might be a long one.
Nick Markakis Falls Off the Ballot
Nick Markakis, a fixture in right field for the Orioles for nearly a decade, saw his Hall of Fame candidacy end almost as quickly as it began. He received just one vote in his first year on the ballot-well short of the 5% threshold needed to remain eligible in future years. One year earlier, Adam Jones met a similar fate, getting just three votes before falling off.
Both were beloved in Baltimore. Both were consistent, durable, and respected. But in the eyes of Hall voters, they fall into the “Hall of Very Good”-players who meant a lot to their teams and fanbases, but didn’t quite reach the elite tier of their era.
No Orioles in Sight for 2027 Ballot
Looking ahead to next year’s ballot, there’s not even an obvious one-and-done Oriole to keep an eye on. Jake Arrieta could be added by the screening committee, but if he ever had a Hall of Fame case, it certainly wasn’t built in Baltimore.
So, when will the next true Oriole make it to Cooperstown? Realistically, it’s a race between two very different paths: Manny Machado’s eventual eligibility and the long-overdue recognition of Bobby Grich.
Machado’s Case Gaining Steam
Machado, who had a bit of a down year in 2024, bounced back in 2025 and added 4.1 bWAR to his resume, pushing him over the 60 WAR mark. That’s a significant milestone. While he won’t be going into the Hall wearing an Orioles cap, his time in Baltimore laid the foundation for what’s become a Hall-worthy career.
He’s still under contract through 2033, and if he plays out that deal, he wouldn’t hit the Hall ballot until 2039. That’s a long wait, but if he keeps producing, his case could be a no-brainer by then.
The Case for Bobby Grich
Then there’s Bobby Grich, whose Hall of Fame candidacy has simmered on the back burner for decades. Grich finished his career with 71.1 bWAR-more than enough to warrant serious consideration.
But his game wasn’t built on flashy milestones. He was a defensive wizard and an on-base machine in an era that didn’t fully appreciate either.
With a new wave of voters entering the BBWAA ranks-many of whom are more analytically inclined-there’s growing momentum for players like Grich. If the relevant committee ever rights that historical oversight, Grich could finally get his due.
The 60 WAR Line: A New Threshold?
Historically, 70 bWAR was seen as the magic number for automatic Hall induction. But with recent trends, that line might be shifting.
This year, we saw players like Chase Utley, Andy Pettitte, and Bobby Abreu-guys in the 60-70 WAR range-gain serious traction. Félix Hernández, whose career peaked high but lacked longevity, also made a significant jump.
If this shift continues, the 60 WAR mark might start to look like the new baseline for serious Hall consideration. That’s good news for players who didn’t rack up traditional counting stats but were undeniably great in their primes.
Young Orioles and the Long Road Ahead
Last year, there was cautious optimism around three young Orioles: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Jackson Holliday. But after a disappointing 2025 season for the team, the shine has dulled a bit-especially for Rutschman, whose trajectory has taken a hit.
Henderson, however, still showed signs of promise. Despite playing through a shoulder impingement, he managed to add 5.3 bWAR in 2025.
If he can stay healthy and average around 5 WAR per season through 2028, he’d be sitting around 41 WAR by age 28. That’s not a Hall lock, but it’s a strong foundation.
If he can keep producing into his 30s, he’ll be in the conversation.
As for Holliday, the 2025 season was a step forward, but there’s still a long way to go. He raised his OPS by 125 points, but it still sat below league average at .695. He debuted at age 20, which gives him time, but he hasn’t capitalized on the early start yet.
For context, look at Andruw Jones-who debuted at 19 and had already posted 10.9 WAR by the end of his age-21 season. Holliday is sitting at 1.1.
That doesn’t mean he’s a bust-far from it. But it does illustrate just how steep the climb is to reach Hall of Fame levels.
Starting Pitchers and a Changing Standard
One of the more interesting trends in this year’s voting was the growing appreciation for modern starting pitchers. Voters are moving away from outdated metrics like wins and embracing more nuanced evaluations of dominance and durability.
Andy Pettitte and Félix Hernández made strides, Cole Hamels had a strong debut, and even Mark Buehrle saw gains in his sixth year on the ballot. It’s a sign that voters are adjusting to what greatness looks like in the 21st century.
Unfortunately, that shift doesn’t do much for recent Orioles pitchers. Kevin Gausman has been solid in his 30s, adding 16.4 WAR since turning 30, but he’s still a long way from Hall territory.
He’d need a late-career surge on par with Randy Johnson-think four Cy Youngs and 60+ WAR after age 35. That’s not happening.
Gausman’s early years in Baltimore didn’t help his case. He posted under 10 WAR in six seasons before being traded in 2018. There’s plenty of blame to go around for how that played out, but the bottom line is that he didn’t build a Hall-worthy base during his time with the Orioles.
Looking Ahead
So, when will Orioles fans have a reason to tune into Hall of Fame induction weekend again?
The smart money is on Manny Machado, whose resume is steadily building toward Cooperstown. But unless the committee finally gives Bobby Grich his long-overdue call, it’s going to be a while.
In the meantime, keep an eye on Henderson. He’s got the tools, the talent, and the time to make a serious run-if everything breaks right. And maybe, just maybe, one day we’ll be talking about Jackson Holliday making a leap of his own.
For now, though, Orioles fans will have to settle for watching from afar-hoping the next bronze plaque with Baltimore ties isn’t too far down the road.