The Orioles’ trip to Citi Field has turned into more than just a late-season series. It’s also a preview of what disappointment can look like when a front office gets busy for the wrong reasons.
Baltimore’s win in Queens last night officially knocked the Mets out of postseason contention, their fourth missed playoff berth in the six seasons since Steve Cohen bought the team. The Orioles, meanwhile, are still hanging on by a thread; they entered the game with just a 1.3% chance to make the playoffs. So while this week has given the Orioles one of their last clearly winnable series of the season, it has also offered a blunt lesson in how quickly a high-spending team can end up nowhere.
New York spent the past offseason trying to patch over the loss of Pete Alonso after he signed with Baltimore. The Mets traded Brandon Nimmo to Texas for Marcus Semien, then poured money into replacements and reinforcements. They gave Jorge Polanco $20M/yr to fill the first-base hole, committed a combined $28M/yr to Devin Williams and Luke Weaver for the bullpen, and then went even bigger by handing Bo Bichette a $42M/yr deal to lure him away from Toronto.
They weren’t done. The Mets also traded their top two prospects to the Brewers for Freddy Peralta and sent Luisangel Acuña and another prospect to the White Sox for Luis Robert Jr., who is now an Oriole.
That kind of aggressive reshuffling is exactly the trap Baltimore needs to avoid as it starts thinking about 2027 and beyond. Once the Orioles’ playoff hopes are officially gone, the biggest questions will be about the future of the front office, including whether Mike Elias is still the right person to lead it. After that, the focus shifts to how Baltimore can fix the obvious flaws that derailed a talented but uneven team.
The clearest warning sign from New York is what happens when a team lets a star walk and then tries to replace him with a pile of expensive alternatives. The Mets lost Alonso and immediately started spending to cover the void he left behind. The Orioles cannot afford to repeat that mistake with pending free agent Trevor Rogers.
Rogers has repeatedly said he wants to stay in Baltimore, and with Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Brandong Young behind him, the Orioles finally have a rotation that looks worthy of a contender. Losing Rogers would push the club backward before it has even had a chance to move forward. It could also send Baltimore shopping for lesser options in the same way the Mets tried to replace Alonso.
The Orioles also need to be careful about how they use the rest of their assets. The 2027 free-agent market doesn’t offer much star power, with Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Seiya Suzuki standing out as the top bats available.
But all three look like awkward fits for Baltimore’s roster. Chisholm would arrive off a down year with the Yankees and would add yet another infielder to a group already crowded with them.
Arozarena and Suzuki fit the right-handed power outfield profile the Orioles hoped for with Taylor Ward, but both would likely cost more than $25M a year as they move into their age-32 seasons.
That kind of spending can work when the player is a true difference-maker. Alonso was that. The Mets’ newer bets haven’t looked nearly as clean, and the combined -0.6 bWAR from Bichette and Polanco this season is the kind of reminder that money alone does not solve roster problems.
Baltimore’s front office also has to resist treating its prospects like simple trade chips. Even if Rogers returns, the Orioles could still look to their new minor league pitching depth for a deal, perhaps for Joe Ryan of the Twins or Logan Gilbert of the Mariners.
But moving someone like Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa or Caden Hunter for a pitcher with just one year of team control would be a risky play. If that pitcher then underperforms, the Orioles could wind up in the same spot as the Mets with Peralta, left trying to move him for pennies on the dollar.
The Orioles do need a reset in some areas. Their offense has been wildly inconsistent, and the rotation still needs to keep growing.
But the Mets’ season is a reminder that change on its own is not the answer. Spend without a plan, shuffle for the sake of shuffling, and the mess can get worse fast.
In Other News...
Orioles Have One Huge Samuel Basallo Question This Offseason
Samuel Basallo gave the Orioles a glimpse of what their future behind the plate could look like in the first half of the season, but the year did not stay on that track for long. A right shoulder injury sent the young catcher to the injured list starting July 22, interrupting a promising stretch and adding to a season already marked by left knee discomfort and a left shoulder issue.
When Basallo returned on Aug. 19, the results were harder to square with the early progress. His average, slugging and exit velocity all dropped sharply as the Orioles slipped further out of playoff contention, leaving the club to weigh what the next step should look like for one of its most important young players. The talent is still there, but the bigger question now is how Baltimore manages his health and development going into the offseason. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Keep Their Fading Playoff Push Alive With A Late Heroics
The Orioles found just enough offense at Citi Field to keep their late-season push from slipping any further, using a tight, low-scoring night to edge the Mets 2-1. Heston Kjerstads RBI double got Baltimore on the board, and the pitching staff did the rest by holding New York to one run in a game that stayed on a razor-thin margin throughout.
Cedric Mullins, meanwhile, came through with the kind of swing the Orioles have been searching for in these tense September moments, delivering the decisive jolt after the game had settled into a deadlock. Baltimore still has work to do to keep its season alive, but wins like this are the only way forward now, especially with every mistake magnified and every inning starting to feel like a turning point. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Just Reached A Painful Point In Their Season
The Orioles have reached the point in a long, frustrating season where the standings no longer leave much room for denial. Even before the latest trip to Toronto exposed more of the same problems, Baltimores mix of inconsistent offense and shaky defense had pushed the club into a corner, with the math and the tiebreakers both working against any real hope of a postseason push.
Now the focus has to shift toward what comes next. Baltimore can use the final stretch to give younger players more meaningful looks and keep an eye on pitcher health, because the better play is no longer to chase a distant playoff path but to make sure the organization gets something useful out of the months ahead. [Read more 🡒]