Spring training is underway in Sarasota, and while the Baltimore Orioles are stretching out arms and shaking off the offseason rust, one thing remains glaringly absent: a true frontline starting pitcher to anchor the rotation. Yes, the addition of Shane Baz via trade brings some intrigue, and re-signing Zach Eflin offers a measure of stability. But for a team with real postseason aspirations, the rotation still feels a piece short-and the situation surrounding Trevor Rogers only sharpens that concern.
Let’s start with Rogers. In a 2025 season that saw its fair share of ups and downs for Baltimore, Rogers was a rare constant.
He posted a sparkling 1.81 ERA across 18 starts, and had injuries not limited his workload-or had the Orioles been more competitive down the stretch-he would've been firmly in the Cy Young conversation. That’s the kind of arm you build a staff around, not one you risk losing for nothing.
The Orioles did lock Rogers into a $6.2 million deal to avoid arbitration this offseason, but that’s a short-term fix. If he stays healthy and pitches anywhere near his 2025 level, he’s poised to cash in-big time-next winter.
And in a free-agent class that’s expected to be thin on elite starters, his value only goes up. According to early rankings, Rogers is projected as the fifth-best free agent overall and the third-best starter, trailing only Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta.
That’s elite company.
So here’s the problem: the Orioles have historically avoided handing out long-term, high-dollar contracts to starting pitchers. That approach may have worked in the past, but the market has shifted.
Pitching is expensive, and teams are paying a premium for top-end arms. If Baltimore isn’t proactive, they could find themselves priced out of retaining Rogers-especially if he tests free agency in a class where demand will far outweigh supply.
There’s a potential wrinkle that could give the Orioles a sliver of hope: the looming 2027 work stoppage. With the current CBA set to expire in December of next year, some players might prioritize financial security over maximizing value.
That could open the door for a short-term extension with a higher average annual value. But banking on that scenario is risky at best.
There’s no guarantee Rogers would take that route, especially if he’s coming off another dominant season.
And that brings us to the bigger picture. Orioles GM Mike Elias had opportunities this offseason to add a proven frontline starter, and so far, he’s come up short.
Framber Valdez was available and ultimately signed with the Detroit Tigers. If Baltimore had a comparable offer on the table and passed, that’s a miss.
Valdez would’ve given the Orioles a reliable, playoff-tested arm and some insurance in case Rogers walks next year.
Zac Gallen is another name that’s been floated, but he reportedly wants an early opt-out in any long-term deal. That could put the Orioles right back in the same situation they’re in now-needing to replace a top starter just as he’s hitting his peak. For a team trying to build sustained success, that’s not a cycle you want to repeat.
As it stands, the Orioles are heading into spring training with a rotation that has potential but lacks a true ace. Baz is talented but unproven at the major league level.
Eflin is solid but not a No. 1.
And Rogers-while elite when healthy-could be gone in less than a year if the front office doesn’t act decisively.
The clock is ticking in Baltimore. The window to contend is open, but it won’t stay that way forever.
If the Orioles want to make the leap from playoff hopeful to legitimate World Series threat, locking down a frontline starter-whether it’s extending Rogers or landing a proven ace-has to be a priority. Otherwise, 2026 could be another season of “what ifs” for a team that’s too talented to settle for that.