Nestor German has landed in that tricky Orioles space where a prospect is good enough to matter, but not quite good enough to be safe.
That’s the spot plenty of Baltimore arms have occupied under Mike Elias, who has spent eight years hunting for starting pitching through late-round draft picks, undrafted free agents, and the kinds of 3rd-5th round picks other teams are willing to move. The process didn’t produce a real major league answer until the 2026 season, when Brandon Young broke through. Now German is one of the next arms trying to follow that path.
When the Orioles took German in the 11th round in 2023, there wasn’t much in his college résumé to make him look like future rotation material. He spent three years at Seattle in the Western Athletic Conference, and the numbers weren’t eye-catching: his best ERA in college was 5.97, and he wasn’t posting the strikeout totals or K/BB marks that usually get attention.
Baltimore still saw something worth betting on. German’s 2024 season across both A-ball levels made it clear that the organization had found a real developmental project.
He struck out 90 batters in 73.2 innings, put up a 1.59 ERA, and kept a sub-1 WHIP. That’s the kind of leap that makes a scouting department look smart in a hurry.
He kept moving last season, spending most of his time at Double-A. In 18 games there as a 23-year-old, German posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.099 WHIP.
Those aren’t “send him straight to the majors” numbers, but they were enough to keep him on the radar and point him toward Triple-A. He entered the year as the No. 11 prospect in the organization in a composite ranking, and he was even higher on some early lists.
FanGraphs described him in May as a downhill thrower with a high slot, above-average extension, and a fastball with plenty of vertical break. They also noted that he sat 92-94 and touched 98, while throwing strikes to both sides of the plate.
The same report said all four of his secondaries missed bats and that there were “platoon-neutralizing traits here and enough ingredients to get through a lineup multiple times.” For anyone buying the command, that pointed to the ceiling of a No. 4 starter.
German’s Triple-A season ended up lining up with that kind of profile. Working in Norfolk’s rotation, he finished with a 4.08 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 24 games.
He struck out better than a batter per inning, and his walk rate was steady enough to be useful without turning heads either way. It was fine work, which in a year like this one matters more than it might sound.
Minor league offense jumped this season, after all. The International League carried a 4.82 ERA overall, and pitchers there allowed 1.2 homers per nine innings.
German’s 10 home runs allowed in 117 innings looks a little better in that context. He also did it as a fly ball pitcher, not someone living off ground balls.
Whether that was luck or a real skill will be one of the things to watch next season.
He also outperformed Trey Gibson at Triple-A this year. Gibson, an undrafted free agent from the same draft class, actually got the Orioles call at the major league level and came into the year with more prospect buzz after stronger Double-A results in 2024. That helped explain why he got the first shot in May and June.
German’s situation gets more complicated now because he’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason. As a 2023 college draftee, he has to be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the draft.
For a pitcher on the doorstep of the majors who just held his own in Triple-A, this should be an easy call. Even if the Orioles don’t have an immediate opening for him, keeping that kind of depth is the point.
You hold onto the arm, and if the time comes, you can deal from that strength instead of losing him for nothing.
The path to Baltimore is still crowded. Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish are already tied to the big league rotation for multiple years.
Young did enough to have a rotation spot next season. Elias is also expected to add some kind of veteran arm, because that’s how he operates.
That leaves one opening for a group that already includes Gibson, Luis De León, and Cade Povich, while Michael Forret was brought back and finished the year in Norfolk.
And below them, the next wave is coming fast. The Double-A rotation at season’s end featured Joseph Dzierwa, Caden Hunter, and Anthony Eyanson.
Dzierwa looks set to begin next year in Norfolk’s rotation, with the other two not far behind. That kind of depth is a good problem for the Orioles, but it’s a real squeeze for the pitchers in the middle.
So German sits in the middle of all that traffic. He could still get a crack if injuries hit early next season.
Or the newer names could pass him by and leave him waiting longer. He hasn’t exactly been given a clean runway, and Baltimore hasn’t been quick to move these kinds of arms into the bullpen or send them elsewhere.
For now, all German can do is keep pitching. If he keeps throwing the way he did in 2026, he’ll likely get his chance somewhere.
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