The Orioles are heading into a short, high-stakes stretch, and the clock is already loud. With a lockout expected to start Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m., the club has just over three weeks to reshape a disappointing 2026 roster into something that looks like a contender for 2027.
Mike Elias has already spent the past year making moves that nobody saw coming, and the next few weeks could bring more of the same. Last November, he sent Grayson Rodriguez, once the top pitching prospect in minor league baseball, to the Los Angeles Angels for Taylor Ward.
It was a deal that has not paid off for either side yet. Rodriguez, who had not pitched for the final 14 months he was with the Orioles, posted a 6.02 ERA in 20 starts for the Angels.
Ward, brought in to help a right-handed hitting problem, managed only seven home runs after hitting a career-high 36 in 2025.
There may still be a silver lining for Baltimore from that broader set of moves. Reliever Alex Hoppe, who came over from Seattle in the August trade deadline package, showed promise.
Elias also moved quickly to address the rotation. He acquired Shane Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays, giving up four prospects, and a little more than three months later signed Baz to a four-year, $68 million extension.
Just before the trade deadline, he locked up Kyle Bradish on a five-year, $90 million deal. Then came the biggest shock of all: Elias traded Adley Rutschman, the overall top pick in the 2019 draft, to Boston for five players, including four top 30 prospects.
That kind of volatility has become part of the story around Elias, and this winter may be no different. The Orioles’ path to 2027 is murky right now.
Gunnar Henderson is in the same spot Rutschman was a year ago - two seasons from free agency - and he is coming off a disappointing season. Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday also had subpar years.
That makes the roster-building task tricky. Baltimore likely cannot swing a major deal without parting with one or more of those players, along with some of the pitching prospects it has stockpiled.
The free-agent market does not offer much relief. There are useful names available, but this is shaping up as one of the weaker markets in recent years, with few true difference-makers.
There is no slugger on the level of Pete Alonso, another Elias move that nobody anticipated. The Orioles also are not expected to chase left-hander Tarik Skubal, the top player on the board.
Alonso’s five-year, $155 million deal is about the ceiling for what Baltimore might be willing to spend. Skubal, according to MLBTradeRumors.com, could land nine years and $425 million, a number far beyond the Orioles’ range.
One clear need is replacing left-hander Trevor Rogers, who is described as a solid starter. He will not accept the $23.15 million qualifying offer and is expected to secure a multi-year contract that averages at least that much annually.
In a normal offseason, the Orioles might ease into things and let the market develop. This is not a normal offseason. They also have a new general manager, Jared Banner, who has been preparing for next week’s General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas.
The list of needs is straightforward enough: probably two starters, a left-handed reliever, a backup catcher and right-handed hitting outfielders with some power. The question is whether they can get all of that done before the lockout hits.
There is reason to think they can. The market is expected to move quickly, and if the 2021-2022 lockout is any guide, spring training could end up shortened, leaving only a small window between the labor dispute being resolved and camp getting underway.
Baltimore could still add players after that, but it would not be ideal. The bulk of the work likely has to happen now, before Dec.
Once the lockout begins, everything stops. No players can be signed to major league contracts. If a deal is agreed to just before the shutdown, as the Orioles did with starting pitcher Jordan Lyles in December 2021, the physical needed to finalize it would wait until the lockout ends.
In Other News...
Orioles First Rounder Is Finally Showing Why Fans Should Pay Attention
Vance Honeycutt spent much of his first full pro season trying to find his footing, and for a while the results matched the growing pains. The Orioles 2024 first-round pick, taken 22nd overall, had a rough run in Single-A and High-A, where the bat lagged and the strikeouts piled up, but the organization kept pushing him forward because the tools that made him such an intriguing pick were still there.
Since moving up to Double-A, Honeycutt has started to look more like the player Baltimore hoped it was getting, and that progress carried into the Arizona Fall League. He has been working with a hitting coach to tweak his swing, while also putting emphasis on the rest of his game, including baserunning and defense, which is the kind of all-around development the Orioles want to see as he tries to turn early struggles into real momentum. [Read more 🡒]
Trevor Rogers May Have Played His Way Beyond Baltimore
Trevor Rogers has given the Orioles enough to make him more than a short-term stopgap, and that is part of what makes his market so interesting now. After a solid recent run in Baltimore, the left-hander is drawing attention as free agency opens, with clubs looking at him as a young starter who can still fit into a long-term plan rather than just patch an immediate hole.
St. Louis is one of the teams being linked to Rogers, and the fit is easy to see from the Cardinals side. They need bullpen help, a veteran starter and possibly a third baseman, but they also have the payroll flexibility to chase a pitcher like Rogers if they decide he is worth the investment, which leaves Baltimore facing the familiar question of whether a rebound arm can be kept after he has reestablished his value. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Face A Costly Outfield Decision That Could Shape The Lineup
The Orioles are once again in the market for help in the outfield, and the discussion is drifting toward two familiar names from Chicago. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ both bring appeal for a Baltimore lineup that could use more impact and balance, and each would come with a different kind of fit. Suzuki offers the kind of offensive upside that can change the look of a batting order, while Happ brings a more established all-around profile, including defensive value that teams tend to trust when the games get tighter.
What makes the choice tricky is that this is not just about talent, but about cost and roster construction. Baltimore has to weigh how much it wants to commit in free agency, especially with ownership realities always part of the conversation, and the wrong move could leave the club paying for a bat that does not quite match the rest of the roster. For now, the question is less about whether the Orioles need an outfielder than which one best fits the shape of what they are trying to build. [Read more 🡒]