Trevor Rogers gave the Orioles a season worth remembering, but that doesn’t mean Baltimore should hand him a long-term deal and hope for the best.
Rogers is staring at a big decision with just over a week left to decide whether he wants to stay. The Orioles extended him a qualifying offer of $23.15 million after 2026, the final year of his contract, and that puts the club in a tricky spot.
He was the Opening Day starter, he flashed ace-level stuff, and at his peak he looked like one of the best arms this team has had in a long time. But the bigger question is whether that version of Rogers is still coming back.
His 2025 season was the kind that sticks in a fan base’s memory. In a lost year for Baltimore, with the manager fired in May and Rogers spending the first few months in Triple-A, he still turned in Cy Young-level production when he got on the mound.
Over 18 games, he posted an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.903 while striking out 103 batters. For Orioles fans, that was a reminder of the pitcher he looked like in 2021 with the Marlins, when he finished as Rookie of the Year runner-up and made his only All-Star team.
Still, the Orioles have to ask whether a 29-year-old Rogers is actually getting better. And if the answer is no, then a multi-year commitment out of owner Dave Rubenstein’s pocket starts to look a lot less appealing.
The warning signs were there in his most recent season. Compared with the year before, Rogers took a step back in almost every meaningful area.
He averaged .43 fewer innings per start and carried a +2.22 ERA differential. His fastball also lost some of its edge, with arm-side movement dropping from 11.5 to 10 inches and velocity slipping as well.
Those numbers may feel a little fine-grained, but they help explain the six-game stretch in the middle of the season when he allowed 29 earned runs.
Even with the regression, Rogers still showed why Baltimore put him at the front of the rotation. He was especially tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .186 average and a .515 OPS.
He also cleaned things up late, trimming his ERA from 5.30 to 4.03 over his final 15 games. That’s evidence he can make adjustments when things start to drift.
The problem is that the Orioles need more than flashes. Rogers has had dominant stretches in Baltimore, and a return to that level is not impossible. But he’s also been a pitcher with confidence issues across multiple seasons, he doesn’t usually work deep into games, and he has no playoff pedigree to point to.
That’s why the front office should be looking elsewhere, including cheaper options. President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias and newly appointed GM Jared Banner have to weigh the alternatives.
One name in the mix is Reid Detmers, who made all 32 starts and posted a 3.36 ERA over 185 innings for the Angels. He struck out 28.5% of hitters while walking just 6.5%, and he’s projected at $7.5 million for 2027, with about $20 million total across his two arbitration years. That would give Baltimore a similar, if not better, pitcher at a much lower cost.
There’s also Ryan Weathers, who turned in a mid-three ERA across a career-high 25 starts for the Yankees. Over his last 262⅓ innings, he kept hitters on the ground at a 47.2% clip and is projected at only $3.1 million in arbitration. The Orioles were deep in talks with the Yankees about Adley Rutschman, so business between the two clubs wouldn’t be out of the question.
Another possibility is Shane McClanahan, whose Tommy John recovery cost him two seasons but didn’t stop him from putting together a strong year. He struck out 106 batters in 188 innings, went 10-7, and finished with a 3.36 ERA. The Baltimore-born lefty is as steady as they come if he stays healthy, and he deserves serious consideration.
Rogers is most likely going to turn down the Orioles’ offer. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN projects him at four years and $76 million, and Baltimore probably shouldn’t get into a bidding war with teams like the Cardinals and White Sox. The smarter play is to keep the money flexible and find someone who can fill the role, and maybe do even more.
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For Baltimore, the appeal is obvious: turn an area of depth into a chance to address a separate need, especially on the pitching side. Elias has worked with Miami before, and that history only adds to the sense that this is a path worth watching as the trade market develops. Names like Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez fit the kind of upside the Orioles might chase, even if nothing has moved beyond the speculative stage so far. [Read more 🡒]