The Orioles return home with their season hanging by a thread, and the math is brutally simple: if they want to keep even a faint AL wild card pulse alive, they probably need to sweep the Brewers this weekend, or at the very least avoid losing more than once.
That’s a tall order against the MLB-best team, but Baltimore has shown flashes against quality opponents this year. The problem is the other side of that coin: the Orioles have also taken too many nights off, and their records against the Yankees (2-8) and Red Sox (4-9) are a big reason they’re in this spot. They’re not out of it yet, but they’re living on the edge of the edge.
For now, the scoreboard-watching is mostly background noise. The Orioles need to do the heavy lifting themselves and get to 83 wins before worrying about the rest.
If they take care of business tonight, they’d also want help from around the league, with the Guardians beating the Athletics and the White Sox losing to the Tigers. Baltimore would prefer Chicago to hold the third wild card spot rather than Cleveland, since the Orioles own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the White Sox but not over the Guardians.
Even that, though, may not be enough if the Orioles don’t come close to finishing 8-1. They’ve dug too many holes with games they should have won, and now they’re trying to climb out from a three-game deficit with nine to play. There’s been some bad luck mixed in, sure, but the bigger issue has been too many of the players expected to carry the load simply not doing it, with the exception of Pete Alonso.
Baltimore’s lineup tonight sends Dylan Beavers to left field, Alonso to first, Gunnar Henderson at short, Coby Mayo at third, Samuel Basallo behind the plate, Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH, Colton Cowser in center, Jeremiah Jackson at second and Leody Taveras in right.
Cade Povich gets the start for the Orioles after being recalled. He’s been a tough watch over the last two seasons in the majors, which is why his 5.21 ERA in that span has stood out, but he has been better this year through seven games at 4.05.
The matchup does give Baltimore a chance to work from one specific edge. Milwaukee has been a little weaker against lefties than righties by team OPS, and Povich will try to use that to his advantage.
Still, the Brewers have been excellent in games started by left-handers, going 33-14. The Orioles, for comparison, are 24-25 in those games.
Milwaukee counters with Jackson Chourio in left, Brice Turang at second, William Contreras at catcher, Andrew Vaughn at first, Christian Yelich at DH, Joey Ortiz at third, Garrett Mitchell in center, Luis Lara in right and Cooper Pratt at short.
Dustin May starts for the Brewers. He opened the season with the Cardinals and posted a 4.38 ERA, which worked out to an 89 ERA+.
Milwaukee picked him up at the trade deadline, and he’s been even less effective there, with a 4.91 ERA and an 85 ERA+. Orioles fans know that those numbers don’t guarantee much when the game actually starts.
In Other News...
Orioles Wasted Trevor Rogers Start In A Loss Fans Will Hate
Trevor Rogers gave the Orioles exactly the kind of start a team can build around, even if the scoreboard never caught up. He worked eight innings, allowed one run on three hits, walked one and struck out 10, yet Baltimore still walked away with a 1-0 loss to the Brewers after Robert Gasser matched the moment with seven scoreless innings of his own.
Milwaukee got all the offense it needed in the second inning, when Joey Ortiz tripled and Gary Sanchez brought him home on a groundout. From there, the Orioles could not break through, managing only three hits, which turned Rogers effort into the latest frustrating reminder that a dominant outing does not always keep a game from slipping away. [Read more 🡒]
Trey Mancini Gets The Orioles Ending Baltimore Fans Wanted
Trey Mancini closed the book on his playing career the way Baltimore fans had long hoped he would, signing a ceremonial one-day contract so he could retire as a member of the Orioles. For a player whose years in Baltimore carried so much meaning both on and off the field, the move gave the organization a chance to formally bring him back into the fold and let him finish where so many supporters still associate him most strongly.
It was a fitting touch for a franchise that has spent recent seasons trying to reconnect its present with a more personal past, and Mancini remains one of the clearest bridges between the two. The ceremonial ending did not come with a game-winning swing or a final at-bat, but it delivered the kind of closure Orioles fans had been waiting for, even as the next chapter now shifts to how the club continues honoring the players who helped define earlier eras. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Face One Defining Question About Elias After Front Office Shakeup
The Orioles season has already taken on a familiar edge of unfinished business, and the latest front office moves only sharpened it. Baltimore dropped a 1-0 game to the Brewers on a day when the club was honoring Trey Mancinis retirement as an Oriole, a reminder of how much this organization still leans on its recent past even as it tries to map out what comes next. Executive Mike Elias said he and manager Craig Albernaz are expected back next season, but the personnel picture around them is shifting.
The bigger question now is how Elias reshapes the baseball operations group after a round of changes that includes the departure of director of player development Matt Blood and a title change for analytics executive Sig Mejdal. The Orioles are also reportedly looking for a new general manager with a player development background, which makes this more than a routine offseason adjustment. It is the kind of front office churn that can tell you a lot about where a club thinks it has been, and what it believes still needs fixing. [Read more 🡒]