The Orioles are running out of young pieces they can still call part of the future, and Coby Mayo needs to be one of the names they stop treating like a maybe.
The case here is simple enough: Baltimore has to draw up a real path to 500 plate appearances for Mayo next season. Not scraps.
Not a couple of starts here and there. A legitimate run.
That matters because the organization’s first wave of alleged core players is thinning out fast. Adley Rutschman is already gone, which the source frames as inevitable with two years of team control.
Gunnar Henderson is the next one likely to be on the move, with the hope being that it happens in return for a center fielder. Heston Kjerstad, the second-overall pick from Mike Elias’s first draft in 2020, is described as having no future in Baltimore and will be 28 in spring training.
Jordan Westburg, also from that class, “is never healthy.” Colton Cowser, the fifth overall pick in 2021, and Jackson Holliday, the top pick in 2022, could also be nearing the end of their time there.
That leaves Mayo as one of the few possible diamonds left in a system that has spent years trying to define itself. He has flaws, no question, and the lack of a set defensive home is a real issue. But a franchise with a reputation for mishandling player development has to find a way to get his bat through 2027 with a runway that matches the power.
And the Orioles know there’s already been plenty of wobbling around him. Elias moved quickly to see whether Christian Encarnacion-Strand could push Mayo aside at third.
Mayo has to know how tentative that support has been. The bigger questions now are practical ones: can he add right field to his profile this offseason to increase his value?
Would Elias actually move Tyler O’Neill and absorb the salary to open more room for Mayo’s right-handed bat? Would Pete Alonso also slide into more DH time?
Those are the kinds of decisions that need to be on the table, because Mayo should be a lineup regular, probably fifth or sixth, and someone who gets chances against right-handed starters unless the opposing arm is truly elite. There needs to be a real priority list here, one that keeps Baltimore from drowning in platoon chaos. Mayo and Samuel Basallo, who also comes with a tough defensive profile, ought to be right at the top of it.
The bat is why this is worth pushing. From July 1 on, Mayo posted a .436 SLG against right-handed pitching.
Baltimore still didn’t give him as many looks against righties as it should have, but the production was there anyway. That number ranked fourth on the team in that span and was almost identical to CES.
Mayo walked more often than CES did against righties, though his 29% strikeout rate there is far from ideal.
Even so, the growth was real enough to make a believer out of this case. If Mayo can live in the .720 OPS range against right-handers and keep punishing lefties the way he already does, that’s a profile that should not be fighting for at-bats.
And the lefty damage is where Mayo has already separated himself from the pack. He got attention for leading MLB in lefty-smashing, but the gap between him and everyone else was massive.
His 207 OPS+ against lefties led the majors. Spencer Steer was next at 188.
Mayo slugged .712 off lefties, while Randal Grichuk was second at .655. His 1.105 OPS in those matchups was absurd.
What deserves more attention is the .322 batting average against lefties that helped fuel that on-base production. That’s a huge chunk of contact, and if Mayo can sharpen his swing decisions a bit against southpaws and trim the strikeout rate from 25% to 20%, there’s more upside waiting there too.
The underlying indicators back up the belief. Mayo finished in the 84th percentile in exit velo, the 91st in barrel rate, and the 89th in bat speed. He has always handled offspeed pitches well, and last season he slugged .586 against fastballs, which has long been a pitch he controlled in the minors as well.
There’s more than just the bat, too. Mayo has a cannon for an arm, has been working on his accuracy, and runs better than people may assume, sitting in the 61st percentile in sprint speed.
He is not a plodder. That’s why right field should at least be part of the discussion.
Given what Elias has tolerated in the outfield before, and the glove-first outfielders who haven’t impacted the ball the way Mayo can - Dwight Smith Jr. to DJ Stewart to Heston Kjerstad to Rece Hinds - this is something that should get a real look in Sarasota, assuming spring training is close to normal.
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