It’s hard to look at the Orioles after 2026 and feel like the arrow is pointing sharply up. If anything, the setup suggests the opposite for a handful of players who turned in peak years in Baltimore’s lost season. With another offseason of roster tinkering ahead, and plenty of uncertainty around how the club handles both its lineup and pitching staff, there’s real reason to think some of last year’s top performers could slide in 2027.
Pete Alonso is the obvious place to start. He’ll still mash, but expecting another season like the one he just put together is asking a lot from a player heading into his age-32 season.
He played basically every day, and that kind of ironman stretch gets harder to sustain as a player moves deeper into his 30s. There’s also the way the Orioles are likely to be built around him.
If the lineup again leans heavily on swing-and-miss bats and lacks a true leadoff option or on-base help, Alonso’s counting stats could take a hit even if the power remains intact. He posted 43 homers and 113 RBIs in 2026, but that level looks awfully hard to repeat.
Since the Wild Card era began in 1969, an MLB player age 32 or older has logged at least 140 games at first base and hit 35 homers only 22 times, with just 14 players doing it. Only four of those seasons have come in the last 20 years: Matt Olson with 41 in 2026, Miguel Cabrera with 38 in 2016, Joey Votto with 36 in 2017 and Ryan Zimmerman with 36 in 2017.
Alexander is another name that raises the regression alarm. He put together a huge stretch, and for about two-and-a-half months he was producing like a top-10 hitter in MLB by weighted runs created-plus, OPS, or just about any other measure you want to use.
But there are reasons to think that kind of run won’t last. He’s clearly toolsy, and the Orioles may see him as the type of player they can keep moving around to squeeze out 500 plate appearances, but the swing-and-miss remains part of the package.
The leap from a .240 hitter to .300, and from a 32% on-base rate to 36%, feels difficult to bank on. Even with the versatility and the hard contact, there’s also some concern that all the grinding and all the extra movement could eventually catch up to him physically.
The same caution applies to the pitching side. We like the back-end starter profile, and he does a good job working off his fastball without getting cute, but there’s nothing here that screams ace.
The ball was put in play on him a lot, and if he ends up leading the Orioles rotation in ERA again, that would mean a lot of things went wrong. He was useful for Baltimore after being a mess in Seattle, but even then he was below average when it came to throwing a first-pitch strike.
Then there’s the reliever with elite velocity and not quite enough movement on much of his arsenal. The fastball has to be a major weapon if he’s going to keep showing up in the leverage spots he handled late last season.
Seattle had mostly used him as a last-resort, mop-up arm, and while there’s no denying he looked better after the move, relievers come with plenty of volatility - especially ones who still feel unfinished. The danger with Baltimore is obvious: when Elias thinks he’s found a gem, the usage tends to spike, and the player can get stretched too far.
That’s the thread running through all of this. There are pieces here worth believing in, but there are also several performances from 2026 that look hard to duplicate if the Orioles are built the same way again in 2027.
In Other News...
Orioles Outfield Prospect Paths Just Took Two Very Different Turns
Nate George and Enddy Azocar took very different routes through High-A Frederick this season, even though both spent time in the Orioles outfield mix. George, a 16th-round pick in 2024, got off to a strong start before a non-baseball-related medical condition ended his season early, cutting short what had been an encouraging run for one of Baltimores younger prospects.
Azocars year went in the opposite direction. Signed by the Red Sox in 2024, he made clear progress in 2026, earned a promotion, and then was traded to the Orioles before finishing the season with the Frederick Keys. For a farm system always looking for outfield options, the contrast between the two is a reminder of how quickly a prospects path can change, and how much can hinge on what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Fill Long-Open GM Role With Elias Plan In Mind
The Orioles have finally filled a long-open front-office post, hiring Jared Banner as general manager to work alongside president of baseball operations Mike Elias. Banner arrives from the Cubs, where he served as assistant general manager, and his role in Baltimore will span baseball operations, player development, coaching and talent acquisition.
For a club that has spent years building toward sustained contention, the move adds another layer of structure to Elias plan. Banner is stepping into a job that touches nearly every part of the organization, and the fit matters because the Orioles are trying to keep their pipeline strong while also managing the day-to-day demands of a major league roster. [Read more 🡒]
Former Orioles Are Becoming October Weapons For A Division Rival
The Orioles had a familiar look in the Rays' playoff win over the Guardians, even if the jerseys had changed. Tyler Wells and Bryan Baker both played key roles out of Tampa Bay's bullpen, with Baker finishing things off for his 34th straight save, while Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo were also part of the game in a postseason matchup that carried a little extra Baltimore flavor.
For an Orioles team that has spent the past several seasons trying to build a contender, seeing former players pop up in October for another club is a reminder of how much talent has passed through the organization. Wells and Baker were not just roster fillers in a playoff setting, they were central pieces in a game that mattered, and their success elsewhere is the kind of storyline that lingers when a division rival is still playing this time of year. [Read more 🡒]