The Orioles head into the offseason with a rotation that needs work and not nearly enough certainty to feel comfortable about it.
Baltimore’s starters were basically middle-of-the-pack in 2026, finishing 17th among 30 MLB teams with a 4.26 ERA. That leaves plenty of room for improvement, but the bigger issue is the depth chart itself.
Trevor Rogers, who led Orioles starters with 3.8 fWAR, is set to become a free agent after the World Series. Chris Bassitt is in the same boat after turning in a workable 4.59 ERA and 4.31 FIP.
That leaves the Orioles staring at a staff full of question marks, and if baseball returns next year, the group could look very different.
There are, at least, some arms worth building around. Shane Baz put together what may have been his best big league season, topping 30 starts for the second straight year and setting a career high with 3.3 fWAR. His 4.11 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but the 3.62 FIP tells a better story.
The swing factor with Baz is obvious: if he gets his strikeout stuff back, he could be lined up for a huge year. That’s a big if, but he’s clearly become a foundational piece for Baltimore.
Brandon Young also deserves a spot in the conversation after a breakout 2026. In his second season as a major league starter, the right-hander posted a 3.56 ERA across 156.2 innings, a sharp turnaround from last year’s 6.24 mark. He doesn’t overwhelm hitters, but he knows how to pitch, and he looks like a potential back-end starter for the long haul.
Cade Povich is still part of the mix too, though he’s much harder to get excited about right now. The left-hander finished with a 4.38 ERA, a 4.99 FIP and a 17.5 strikeout rate in eight games, seven of them starts.
Kyle Bradish took a step back from his previous three seasons, finishing with a 4.12 ERA and a 4.36 FIP. Even so, Baltimore had to like the durability: he made 29 starts and logged 155 innings, something he hadn’t done since 2023.
There’s also a health update worth noting. Bradish had surgery to repair a sports hernia that bothered him over the final month, and he’s expected to recover in a few weeks and go through a normal offseason.
The ceiling is still there. A healthy, locked-in Bradish has already shown he can get an ERA under 3.00. The real question is whether he can get back to that level in 2027.
Rogers remains the priority among the pending free agents. Baltimore is expected to extend him a qualifying offer, and the club badly needs him back. If he turns it down, the Orioles will be in a fight with plenty of other teams for his services.
His 4.03 ERA was solid, but it undersells how effective he was. Rogers’ 3.45 FIP, 22.5 percent strikeout rate and elite 5.6 percent walk rate paint a much stronger picture.
He looks capable of being even better next season in terms of run prevention, assuming the Orioles can keep him around. That has to be near the top of Mike Elias’ offseason checklist.
Trey Gibson’s rookie numbers weren’t pretty - a 6.13 ERA in 39.2 innings - but the story gets more interesting once you look past the surface. Most of the damage came in May and June, when he was sent to Triple-A Norfolk to clean things up.
That trip down the ladder led to some meaningful adjustments. Gibson simplified his delivery and improved his control and command. He also appeared to gain some velocity:
Orioles RHP prospect Trey Gibson one-upped himself in the 2nd inning, hitting 98.2 mph on this 4-seam fastball -- a new fastest pitch of his MLB career: https://t.co/DUQ0lo3vbP pic.twitter.com/9KsGfQxKWD
He got a chance to show the progress on September 23 against the Blue Jays, and he made the most of it. Gibson threw six scoreless innings, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out seven.
His fastball averages 95 mph, which sits above league average, and that arm gives him a real shot to stay in the mix. Whether he has a place on the 2027 Orioles will depend on how many meaningful pitching additions the front office makes, but he’s at least a name to keep in mind if the gains stick.
The farm system offers a couple more intriguing options, too. Anthony Eyanson, acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the Adley Rutschman trade, finished 2026 with a 1.54 ERA in 99.1 innings split between High-A and mostly Double-A. Left-hander Joseph Dzierwa, Baltimore’s second-round pick last year, posted a 2.27 ERA in 131 innings at the same levels.
A first-half promotion for either one seems a little aggressive, but the second half of 2027 is another story if they keep mowing through the upper minors.
Beyond that group, the Orioles could also get starts from Luis De León, Michael Forret and Néstor Germán. And of course, there’s always the possibility of role changes and under-the-radar additions.
However it shakes out, Baltimore is heading into an offseason shaped by both its own pitching needs and the looming lockout. It should be a fascinating winter for the Orioles.
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