The Orioles are only two weeks into their offseason, but the calendar is already pressing down on them. With a lockout increasingly looming on Dec. 1, November figures to be a sprint, and if this winter follows the 2021-2022 pattern, the club could wind up with very little runway before a shortened spring training begins.
That means a bunch of key Orioles decisions need to come fast, starting with which familiar names are actually coming back.
Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers are set to hit free agency when the World Series ends, and so are relievers Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge. Akin, though, is not in line to sign anywhere soon after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July.
The Orioles are expected to extend a qualifying offer to Rogers, with the New York Post reporting the amount at $23.15 million. If he takes it, he’d be under contract for 2027 and could either go back to the market next year or work out a longer deal with Baltimore.
The expectation, though, is that Rogers declines and looks for a new home in a thin starting pitching market. If he leaves, the Orioles would land a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
Bassitt and Kittredge probably won’t be back.
Ryan Helsey’s situation is different. He appeared in only 17 games because of two trips to the injured list with right elbow inflammation, but he has a $14 million option for 2027 and is expected to exercise it.
Two more notable options sit on the Orioles’ side of the ledger. Zach Eflin has a $25 million mutual option for 2027 that Baltimore is expected to decline, which would trigger a $2 million buyout.
Eflin had Tommy John surgery in April, and while a return to the Orioles is not ruled out, it won’t be happening anytime soon. Luis Robert Jr. has a $20 million option for 2027 as well, but that one is also expected to go unpicked, sending him to a $2 million buyout after he played only three games following his claim off waivers from the New York Mets on Aug.
Ryan Mountcastle is another likely case of the Orioles moving on. He had just eight games because of a broken left foot and a strained oblique, and his $7.5 million option for 2027 is expected to be declined.
Arbitration will also shape the winter. Seven Orioles are eligible: Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Leody Taveras, Jordan Westburg, Félix Bautista, Codi Heuer and Albert Suárez.
Bautista, Cowser, Henderson and Westburg are expected to be tendered contracts for 2027. Heuer, who never got into a game for Baltimore, Suárez and Taveras might not be.
The club already removed Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish and Yennier Cano from the arbitration pool by extending them. Samuel Basallo, Pete Alonso and Tyler O’Neill are also already under contract for 2027.
The rotation is one of the clearest areas of need if Bassitt and Rogers are gone. That would leave Baz, Bradish and Brandon Young as the base, with Trey Gibson, Cade Povich and even Luis De León potential candidates to compete for innings.
De León, after all, made eight relief appearances in September. There are also interesting arms at Triple-A Norfolk in Michael Forret and Nestor German, though neither is viewed as someone ready to open the season in Baltimore.
Levi Wells, who missed most of the season after core muscle surgery, is in that same bucket.
Longer term, the Orioles could have more pitching on the way. The organization’s three most highly regarded pitching prospects - Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa and Cade Hunter - all finished the year at Double-A Chesapeake, and it’s possible enough progress from that group could put them in position to end 2027 with the Orioles. It’s also possible those prospects become trade pieces in a deal for a major league-caliber outfielder or two.
And the outfield is another spot that needs help. Cowser, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Beavers are expected to be on the roster to start the season, but each struggled offensively last year, and there doesn’t appear to be a ready-made prospect waiting behind them.
Baltimore’s bullpen should have Bautista, Cano and Helsey to start 2027, assuming everyone is healthy, but the left side could still use another option to pair with Josh Walker and Grant Wolfram. The backup catching situation could use a lift, too.
The Orioles ended the season with Carlos Narváez, acquired from Boston in the Adley Rutschman trade, but he hit just .104 (8-for-77). Yohel Pozo is also on the 40-man roster, and he batted .259 in 19 games, though that came in only 27 at-bats.
Coaching changes also feel likely, even if the market has been slow to move. So far only one manager, Seattle’s Dan Wilson, has been fired, while uncertainty remains around Houston’s Joe Espada and Los Angeles Angels manager Kurt Suzuki, both with expiring contracts, as well as Philadelphia’s Don Mattingly, who finished the year as interim manager. The sluggish pace may be tied to the chance of a lockout.
Manager Craig Albernaz took over a staff that already included four coaches: Buck Britton at third base, Drew French as pitching coach, Mitch Plassmeyer as assistant pitching coach and Ryan Klimek in pitching strategy. After Albernaz was hired, seven more joined: Dustin Lind, Brady North, Jason Bourgeois, Donnie Ecker, Miguel Cairo, Hank Conger and Joe Singley.
In Other News...
Orioles Just Made A Risky Bet On Their Rotation Future
The Orioles spent part of their recent roster-building push doubling down on the middle of their rotation future, agreeing to five-year extensions with Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish. It is the kind of move that shows confidence in two pitchers with different paths to Baltimore, one arriving from the Rays in a trade built around prospects and a draft pick, the other developing almost entirely in the organization after coming over in a 2019 deal.
For a club that has tried to balance present contention with longer-term stability, the timing says plenty about how Baltimore views both arms despite their uneven performance and injury histories. Baz is now secured through 2030 and Bradish through 2031, giving the Orioles control over two starters they clearly believe can anchor the rotation, even if the risks are obvious and the payoff is still very much to come. [Read more 🡒]
Orioles Have A Clear Free Agency Wish In The AL East
A number of familiar headaches from around the division are headed back onto the free-agent market, and thats the kind of winter list the Orioles will be watching closely. Baltimore saw several opposing players have their best moments against it during the season, including Trent Grisham, George Springer, David Bednar and Jameson Taillon, making the offseason more about where those names land than what they did in one particular series.
For the Orioles, the hope is simple enough: if those players are going to change teams, the preferred destination is anywhere but the AL East. It is less about chasing headlines than avoiding the same uncomfortable matchups all over again, especially with divisional games carrying extra weight and every familiar face suddenly feeling a little more dangerous than it should. [Read more 🡒]